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The supreme electoral court (CSE) last month announced the official start of the campaign period, ahead of the 6 November general elections. While President Daniel Ortega marked it with the handover of 1,239 property titles to impoverished families in Managua, this clear appeal to the left-wing roots of the ruling Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) belies the fact that much of his campaigning efforts have focussed on attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and shoring up ties with the private sector, serving to fuel what is now a common accusation of dissident Sandinistas such as Monica Baltodano: that his government is little more than “savage capitalism… dressed in leftist garb”.
In the days prior to the 20 August campaign kick-off, the national investment promotion agency, Pronicaragua, hosted a high-profile investment forum which served as an implicit endorsement of the Ortega government by the private sector. Inaugurated by José Adán Aguerri, the president of the leading business lobby Consejo Superior de la Empresa Privada (Cosep), the event saw the participation of key business figures such as Carlos Pellas (Pellas Group), José Antonio Baltodano (CISA-Café Soluble) and Ramiro Ortiz (Grupo Promérica). Underlining Nicaragua’s appeal for FDI, which is forecast to more than double this year, from US$500m in 2010, government representatives were able to point to other evidence of the country’s positive business climate such as the strength of the export sector, which was worth US$1.4bn in the first seven months of 2011, a 25% increase on the same period of 2010.
With the harmonious state of relations between the government and local private sector evident in the implementation of the second stage of the minimum wage increase (see sidebar), Ortega’s interest in attracting foreign capital also no doubt stems from uncertainty over the health of his chief benefactor, Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez, and with it, the future of Venezuelan cooperation, which reached US$1.59bn between 2007,when Ortega took office, and end-2010. One sign of government success with respect to wooing other foreign investors was the recent signing of a letter of intent with the Brazilian construction company, Andrade Gutiérrez, for initial feasibility studies for the proposed deep-water port at Monkey Point, on the Caribbean coast. Budgeted at US$250m-US$300m, the project – the second by the Brazilian company, following the new 250MW Brito hydroelectric project on the San Juan and Brito rivers - ties in with government plans to build an oil pipeline joining the Caribbean port with a refinery currently under construction on the Pacific coast. This would cut the cost of shipping oil from Venezuela to Nicaragua by an estimated 40%, since the boats would no longer have to use the Panama Canal.
The lack of significant differences between Ortega’s electoral platform and those of his main right-wing rivals, Fabio Gadea (Unidad Nicaragüense por la Esperanza, UNE) and former president Arnoldo Alemán (1997-2002, Partido Liberal Constitucionalista, PLC), also contributed to this sense of Ortega’s apparent alignment with the private sector. Inevitably, both of his rivals flag up the dubious nature of his candidacy (which violates both the constitutional ban on presidential re-election for incumbents and those that have previously served two terms), particularly Gadea who is positioning himself as the “anti-pact candidate” (a reference to the power-sharing arrangement between Ortega and Alemán) and as the choice between democracy and autocracy [RC-11-03]. Yet Gadea is also pledging to continue current government projects which are successful; retain initiatives such as the Venezuela cooperation scheme (albeit while making it more transparent by including the funds in the state budget); and prioritise poverty reduction – a core plank of the FSLN platform. Alemán similarly is echoing Ortega’s insistence on the need to boost job creation and improve infrastructure through projects such as the planned Monkey Point port.
Echoes of 2006?
One controversial aspect of Ortega’s campaign has been his use of religious rhetoric and symbols, which has riled the Roman Catholic Church, particularly given a 19-page internal FSLN document leaked to the local press which reportedly urged party supporters to exploit religious festivals for political gain. Church-state reconciliation was crucial to Ortega’s electoral victory in 2006, after which the FSLN backed the criminalization of therapeutic abortion and the appointment of Cardinal Miguel Obando y Bravo as head of Ortega's truth, justice, reconciliation and peace commission. While Obando y Bravo remains a staunch Ortega ally, the FSLN’s use of campaign slogans such as “Christian, Socialist and in Solidarity” has angered other prominent Church leaders. Abelardo Mata, the bishop of Estelí and vice-president of the Episcopal Conference of Nicaragua (CEN), dubbed the strategy a cynical ploy to win the support of the more than 80% of the population that belong to Christian groups (according to the 2005 census), of which 58.5% are Catholic.
The Ortega government announced in August a further 6% increase in the minimum wage, in line with the overall 13% annual increase agreed earlier in the year. Luis Barbosa, the leader of the Central Sandinista de Trabajadores (CST-José Benito Escobar), said the union would respect the agreement because it was an “electoral year” but would lobby for a higher increase next year. With this adjustment, the average minimum monthly salary rises to US$140, ranging from US$89 in the agricultural sector to US$202 in construction, finance and insurance. According to the local press, a basic food basket for six people costs US$424 a month.
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