Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Russia again warns Nato about Libyan action. Dmitriy Rogozin, Russia’s permanent representative to Nato, has once again warned against Nato’s intervention in Libya. Speaking on 2 May, he warned: “I think what the Western coalition is doing in Libya [is] launching strikes that go well beyond the mandate they was given by the UN Security Council – I think that this will create much more evil for them than Bin Laden represented.”

The previous week, on 25 April, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had warned that by supporting the rebels Nato was encouraging further rebellions elsewhere. He said: “Unfortunately it is probably contagious and is developing in other countries in the region in the hope that, if the situation escalates, the international community will come to help. It is in fact an invitation to a whole series of civil wars.”

On 29 April, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin added his strong condemnation, saying that he was “dumfounded” by how easily decisions to use force were being taken. He said that there was an imbalance between the human-rights justifications being given for action and the consequences of the action taken. He said: “Everything must be done to remove this imbalance.”

*** More Russian fears. Adding to Russia’s concerns about Nato actions in Libya (see above), the general secretary of the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has warned that future conflicts might not always remain purely local or regional. Speaking at a round-table conference in Moscow on 27 April, Nikolay Bordyuzha said: “As regards the challenges and threats to CSTO member states, it is very difficult to presume that future conflicts will be only regional and local given the existing alignment of forces.” Bordyuzha pointed to Nato’s expansion, tensions in the Caucasus, and instability caused by extremism and terrorism in Central Asia.

These comments reflect fears that are frequently being heard from Russian policymakers and commentators. In March, for instance, General Makhmud Gareyev, president of the Military Sciences Academy, warned that Russia’s geopolitical position is as bad as it has ever been in its history. He noted that US military forces “are present in any strategic direction – west, south, east, and north”.

A few weeks later, in early April, President Medvedev revealed his own similar anxieties, saying in an address to senior army officers: “We cannot leave our country without the sufficient development of the armed forces and law-enforcement bodies. We shall simply be torn to pieces.”

*** Georgian obstacle to Russia’s WTO accession. Grigol Vashadze, the foreign miniser of Georgia, which is in dispute with Russia over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, said on 28 April that Russia will not be able to join the World Trade Organization without Georgian consent.