Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Russia’s drug problem. In our 31 March issue we reported on possible moves by Russia to talk to the Taleban in Afghanistan. The suggestion, made on 28 March by Russia’s special presidential envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, was motivated by the increase in drug trafficking from Afghanistan. Under the Taleban from 2000-2001, there was a near cessation of poppy-growing in Taleban-controlled areas of Afghanistan.

The latest figures from the Russian Federal Drug Control Service indicate that there are up to 2m-2.5m drug addicts in Russia, or 2% of the population. The service estimates that 126,000 people aged between 15 and 34 die from drugs each year in Russia. Of the 2m-2.5m estimated drug addicts, there are 1.5m users of opiates, essentially heroin from Afghanistan. The life expectancy of those who begin to take heroin is 5-7 years.

*** Militants in North Caucasus. So far in 2011, some 94 militants have been killed in Russia’s North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD). A further 122 militants have been detained since the beginning of 2011. Some 40 law-enforcement and service personnel have also been killed, along with 30 civilians caught in crossfire.

*** France-China: A sign of the times. There has been much speculation that China’s financial help to Eurozone countries facing debt crises, particularly Spain, would have a diplomatic cost for the European Union. In what could be a sign of the times, on 17 April a Catholic mass for Hong Kong’s French-speaking Catholic community to be held on a visiting French frigate in Hong Kong was cancelled.

The official French explanation is that the cancellation was because of security considerations. However, Catholic church sources say that France cancelled the mass because of fears of upsetting Beijing. There has been a major cooling between China and the Vatican recently, and Armed Forces chaplain Father Bertrand Lorentz said that he had received an email saying that the service was being cancelled for “French-Chinese diplomatic reasons connected to the present day”.

*** Russian arms for Chavez. According to Russia’s state arms export monopoly, Rosoboronexport, Venezuela has signed arms contracts worth $11bn with Russia in the past four years, making it the largest buyer of Russian weapons in Latin America.