Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

The first foreign policy move by the new Egyptian regime has been a swift rapprochement with Sudan.  The fact that this has been praised in pan-Arab circles as a counter to Israel’s incursions into Africa would indicate that the world still rotates on its old axis.  The Arab spring appears not to have changed the essentials.

The view of informed observers is that the constitutional referendum of 19 March, sponsored by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, has boosted the Muslim Brotherhood at the expense of the Tahrir Square youthful secularists.  The remnants of the Mubarak regime are now likely to reach an accommodation with the Muslim Brotherhood that will curtail genuine secular-democratic progress.  It is still too early to say for certain, but that does seem to be the direction in which Egyptian domestic affairs are heading.

On the external front, we have already seen an improvement in relations between Cairo and Hamas.  For instance, Egypt allowed a Gaza delegation led by the senior Hamas figure Mahmoud al-Zahar to travel from Gaza on a trip to Khartoum, Damascus, and Ankara.  This would not have been allowed by the Mubarak regime.

Then on 29 March, following a meeting with Egypt’s Foreign Minister Nabil el-Arabi in Cairo, al-Zahar said: "We are going to witness an Egyptian revision on handling the Rafah border crossing [between Egypt and Gaza] and the Palestinian case over the next week or the upcoming days," al-Zahar said.

The Rafah border crossing was closed by Egypt in 2007 after Hamas took control of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority based in the West Bank.

Praising the new regime in Cairo over that of ousted president Hosni Mubarak, al-Zahar said: "The Palestinian people will never forget the position of the former Egyptian government regarding the Israeli violence against the Gaza Strip and the position of the current Egyptian government which warned the Israelis from trying to repeat their aggression against the Strip.”

In a statement posted on the Hamas Government website, Youssef Rizqa, political advisor to Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, said: "For the first time in the history of the relationship, Palestinian and Egyptian ministers are communicating. This is a substantial development that did not take place in Mubarak's era." In a further sign of warming relations, Rizqa added that Hamas intended to re-open the Egyptian Consulate in Gaza, closed in 2007.

The fact that new Egyptian Prime Minister Issam Sharaf chose Khartoum as the first Arab capital to visit is also being seen as a significant change of direction.  The Mubarak regime was noticeably hostile to Sudan, even supporting the rebel movement in the south.  Practical reasons for a rapprochement with Sudan include Egypt’s need for an ally against the African Nile Basin countries’ attempt to amend treaties on the sharing of the Nile’s waters.  They are seeking to reduce Egypt’s share of 54bn cubic metres.  Sudan takes the second largest share with 18bn cubic metres.

It has been equally striking to see Arab praise for Egypt’s move on the grounds that it is a counter to Israeli influence in Africa.  The pan-Arab al-Quds al-Arabi sees the new Sudanese-Egyptian cooperation as providing a strategic boost not only in the fight to prevent a cut in the Egyptian-Sudanese share of the Nile waters but also in opposing “Israeli infiltration into the African continent backed by the US and the West”.  Accoding to the paper: “It is this infiltration that is inciting the Nile source states and is pursuing a scheme aimed at fragmenting both countries, especially Sudan.”