Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Iraqi Shias boycott Saudi Arabia.  The director of media for the Basra Governate Council in southern Iraq announced on 29 March that the council “has unanimously endorsed a decision to boycott Saudi goods in an attempt to show the city of Basra’s rejection of all kinds of violence that is being exercised against the Bahraini people by the Bahraini or Saudi authorities”.

*** South Korea fears an attack “beyond our imagination”. South Korea’s Defence Minister Kim Kwan-jin warned on 25 March that North Korea will attack the South again.  His warning came the day before the first anniversary of the sinking of the Cheonan in which 46 South Korean sailors were killed.  There was a further attack last November, when North Korea shelled the border island of Yeonpyeong.  Kim said: “North Korea is plotting a second, third provocation beyond our imagination like the attack on the Cheonan.”

*** Azerbaijan’s president snubs Iran over Armenia.  Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev declined an Iranian invitation to attend Nowruz celebrations in Tehran on 27 March on the grounds, it is assumed, that Tehran had also invited Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan.

Although of no major significance in itself, this development could be a sign of the times.  Our sources in the region say that the flimsy truce that ended the 1992-94 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is now threatening to break down into a new armed conflict.  There has been a significant deterioration over the past year, with regular military skirmishes threatening to spiral out of control at almost any time.  Azerbaijan has been rapidly increasing its military capabilities, and its already substantial defence budget is set to increase by a further 45% this year to $3.1bn.  This represents nearly 20% of state expenditure.  Some intelligence sources in the region have been warning that, faced by this ratcheting up of Azerbaijan’s military capabilities, Armenia is contemplating a pre-emptive strike.

Armenia is being armed by Russia and could be supported by Moscow (albeit reluctantly) in a renewed war with Azerbaijan.  Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is receiving help from Turkey and (it seems) Israel.  Interestingly, although Azerbaijan is Muslim and Armenia is Christian, Iran has tended to favour Armenia because of the difficulties that Tehran has with its own Azeri minority.

*** China recalls Nepal envoy for ‘weak diplomacy’ over Tibetans.  China has recalled its ambassador to Nepal, Qiu Guohong.  Sources in Beijing say the reason is Qiu’s failure to counter sufficiently robustly the activities of the Free Tibet Movement in Nepal.