Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Despite China’s remonstrations against the tone of Japan’s 2011 defence white paper (see 3 August Courcy’s Intelligence Brief), Japan shows no signs of backing down – and it has also made it clear to Beijing that the beguilement of China’s markets will not deflect Japan’s determination to protect its territorial sovereignty.

As we reported in our 3 August issue, China responded to the publication of Japan’s 2011 defence white paper by expressing its “strong dissatisfaction”.  On 3 August, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ma Zhaoxu complained: “The Japanese 2011 defence white paper made carping and irresponsible comments on China’s national defence construction.”  He also then made the standard reference to Japan’s history of aggression, saying: “I hope Japan can learn from the past, seriously reflect on its own defence policy and do more to deepen mutual trust with neighbouring countries, maintain regional peace and stability, not the contrary.”

But that Japan will not back down in the face of Chinese anger was made clear by Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano on 11 August.  The day before, on 10 August, Edano had told a committee of Japan’s upper house of parliament that Japan was prepared to despatch the Self-Defence Forces to defend the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea if threatened by a foreign power.  The islands, known as Diaoyu by China, are claimed by both China and Taiwan but controlled by Japan.

On 11 August, Edano was asked to clarify Japan’s position, and he replied: “It is expected that economic ties, especially with Japan’s neighbouring countries, would be damaged seriously, but we should give priority to defending our land and territory.  What I meant was that Japan would exercise its right to self-defence if such a situation occurs.”

Japan’s new National Defence Programme Guidelines (NDPG) state that Japan will develop a ‘Dynamic Defence Force’ to “prevent direct threats to Japan from reaching the country”, including responding to attacks on an offshore island, and they say that “in order to handle an increasingly challenging security environment, Japan needs to steadily build an appropriate-size defence force”.

Japan has also responded to the launching for sea trials of China’s first aircraft carrier – the Varyag – by saying that the launch will “have a big impact on the region”.  Speaking on 12 August, Defence Minister Toshimi Kitazawa added: “We will keep an eye on it with a sense of wariness.”

Taiwan response to the Varyag’s launch was even more forthright.  On 10 August, Taiwan’s military displayed a model of its HF-3 anti-ship missile at a local defence exhibition against the backdrop of a burning aircraft carrier that looked very like China’s latest naval acquisition.  Next to the burning carrier were the Chinese characters for “carrier killer”.

China, fairly it would seem, has played down the launch of its first aircraft carrier by pointing out that the US, Japan, and India will respectively have 11, two, and three aircraft carriers by 2014 while China will have just one.  Nevertheless, it does seem to be excessively coy about its newest military asset.  According to sources in Hong Kong, officers from China’s Ministry of State Security have even arrested innocent military enthusiasts who have been following the progress of the Varyag.   A number of journalists interested in the launch were also detained by State Security.