Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Israeli hawks eye Sinai.  In our 3 August issue, we looked at Israeli reactions to the fifth attack in the last six months on the Sinai pipeline carrying gas to Israel.  The attacks on the gas pipeline have coincided with an increase in the smuggling of weapons into the Gaza Strip.  It is thought that the number of rockets in the Gaza Strip has increased from 5,000 to 10,000 since the end of 2010, and it is estimated that there has also been a sixfold increase in the amount of smuggled explosives.  As we reported, the assessment of Israeli intelligence is that Egypt is “losing control over the Sinai region”.

The assessment that Egypt is losing control of the Sinai was reinforced by the 29 July attack by 150 masked men on a police station in the Sinai city of Arish.  The masked men, thought to be al-Qaeda operatives, raised black flags and took control of the city for six hours, during which time seven people were killed and 30 injured.

Israeli hawks say that Israel now has three choices: watch Sinai becoming a haven for al-Qaeda and other extremists; allow an increasingly hostile Egypt to remilitarize the peninsula in order to re-establish control; or for Israel to retake control of the region itself.   There is little doubt which of the three options the hawks favour.

*** Crackdown in Xinjiang.  Following the 30-31 July bombings that killed 18 people, the Public Security Department in China’s restless Muslim province of Xinjiang has ordered a two-month crackdown “on violent criminal activities” with a view to “crushing terrorist groups, nabbing behind-the-scene plotters, and preventing mass incidents”, according to local reports.  The Zhongguo Xinwen She news agency says that police “will sternly crackdown on illegal religious activities, materials advocating violence and extremism, illegal publicity materials using electronic media, and criminal online activities”.   Police patrols are being increased in public places such as squares, rail and bus stations, markets, and shopping areas.

*** China’s challenging demographics.  A Chinese government report issued on 16 August says that the number of Chinese citizens aged 60 or over is now 177.65m, or 13.26% of the total population.  It is estimated that the percentage of China’s population categorized as ageing will reach 17% in the next five years and 30% by 2050.  The report was produced by China’s National Working Commission on Ageing (CNWCA).

The United Nations says that at present almost 700m people worldwide are aged 60 or above, which is still under 10% of the total. By 2050, this is expected to have grown to 2bn, which is over 20% of the world’s population.  The latest Chinese statistics suggest that China will be one of the country’s with the highest percentage of ageing people.