Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

The lead briefing in our 20 July issue looked at the internal debate in Israel about a pre-emptive Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear programme.  As we discussed, the debate remains finely balanced.  Since that briefing two developments have been added to the mix that marginally favour those in Israel arguing for an early pre-emptive strike.  On the other hand, global economic turmoil, the ongoing Arab revolts, and the impending bid for Palestinian statehood at the UN all point to the need to avoid any futher escalation in the Middle East.

The first of the new factors marginally favouring the Israeli hawks is the debt crisis in the United States, which adds significantly to the already strong arguments against any further US military engagements.  US contingency plans for a military strike against Iran are being pushed further to the margins by the increasing pressure on defence spending.  For the Pentagon, dealing with Afghanistan and Iraq remain sufficient challenges.  But if the US is so constrained, so the hawks in Israel will be arguing that Israel needs to act alone as waiting for the US to act will be fruitless.

The second new factor is the social unrest in Israel which could be pushing the country towards an early general election.  Sources in Israel say that one of the reasons Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak favour an early strike is fear that they could lose the next general  election and that the opposition would not have the courage to strike against Iran if, ultimately, diplomacy and other covert methods fail and Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons becomes inevitable.  Elections must be held by February 2013, but Israeli parliaments seldom run their full term and current events could hasten an election, perhaps by the end of this year.

Against these two points, the extreme volatility of the global economic and security situation certainly continues to weigh against the creation of a further major crisis, as does the impending Palestinian bid for recognition at the United Nations when the General Assembly convenes from 13 September.

Marwan Barghouti, an influential Palestinian leader currently detained in an Israeli prison where he is serving five life sentences on terror-related murder convictions, has called for a ‘peaceful million-man march’ in Arab, Muslim and Western capitals to coincide with the UN General Assembly.  But he has also called for ‘struggle and resistance on the ground’ – which is code for terrorism.

The key date appears to be 20 September, which is when the Palestinians intend to hold a mass rally to coincide with UN deliberations.  Our sources say that the Palestinian Authority will try to keep the demonstrations peaceful, and that there does not appear to be much popular Palestinian appetite for a third intifada.  However, there is a fear in Israel that demonstrations on the scale planned could lead to confrontations at roadblocks or settlements in the West Bank, and there is always the possibility of extremists exploiting the demonstrations.