Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** India prioritizes its Eastern fleet.  According to local sources, the Indian government has recently issued a directive to India’s east coast ports to give priority to Indian naval ships because of the continuing shift of naval resources from the Western Naval Command to the Eastern Naval Command in response to China’s “increasing footprint”.

China is, for instance, continuing to develop bases in Myanmar and it is building a port at Hambantota in Sri Lanka.  India has reinforced its eastern fleet with 14 additional warships in the past five years, including five Rajput-class missile destroyers that were previously with the western fleet.  The Eastern Naval Command now has 50 major warships, up from 30 in 2005.

*** Turkey Warns Cyprus.  On 5 August, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey had warned the divided island of Cyprus against drilling for oil and gas in the Mediterranean.  He said: “We will show the appropriate reaction if any further step is taken.”  Turkey’s position is that the Greek Cypriot administration does not have the right to conduct oil and gas exploration until a government representing the whole island, including the breakaway northern Turkish element, is formed.  The Cypriot government has said it will begin drilling for hydrocarbons off the island’s southern coast on 1 October.  Turkey has 35,000 troops stationed in northern Cyprus.

The issue also forms a further bone of contention between Turkey and Israel at a time when relations between the one-time allies have deteriorated sharply.  The exploration is to take place in an 800,000 acre area bordering Israeli waters where large natural-gas finds have been made.  Greek Cyprus signed an accord with Israel last November demarcating the maritime border, but Turkey has called this agreement ‘null and void’ because it has not considered the rights of Turkish Cyprus.

*** Turkey’s military under scrutiny. For the first time in Turkey, the civilian-controlled Court of Accounts has begun an audit of military-run firms.  The new law on the Court of Accounts came into effect in late 2010.  The new law was strongly opposed by the Turkish General Staff and a last-minute modification of the bill did ensure that some military spending remains outside the jurisdiction of the Court of Accounts.  On 29 July the commanders of the army, navy and air force resigned, along with General Isik Kosaner, chief of general staff, over the detention of 250 officers accused of plotting to overthrow the Islam-based AKP government.

*** China’s sex ratio imabalance worsens.  Census data from China shows that the sex-ratio imbalance is continuing to worsen.  In 2010 there were 118.08 males for every 100 females.  In 2000 the ratio was 116.9 males to 100 females, in 1990 there were 111.3 males to 100 females, and in 1982 there were 108.5 males per 100 females.