Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

With the prospect of the Palestinians seeking UN recognition for a Palestinian state during the new session of the General Assembly which opens on 13 September, Western diplomats are redoubling efforts to get Israel and the Palestinians back to the negotiating table.  In addition to all the usual impediments (Jerusalem, the right of return, the Jewish nature of Israel, Hamas), the social unrest in Israel provides an added complication.

Recognition of a Palestinian state, within pre-June 1967 borders by the UN General Assembly would be of huge significance even if the new state’s membership of the UN were vetoed by the US.  For instance, Taiwan, the Vatican, and Kosovo are all considered states without being members of the UN.  Also even though Switzerland only joined the UN in 2002 no one doubted that it was a state before that.  During the Cold War, many states had their application for membership at the UN vetoed by the Soviet Union (including Ireland) but this did not negate their statehood.

The US and Israel are working on a document setting out the parameters for a return to negotiations with the Palestinians.  The basis is said to be the speech that President Obama made to Aipac in May, that is that an agreement should be based broadly on the 1967 borders but with mutually agreed land swaps.  However, Israeli government sources are not at all confident that Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas can be prevented from going to the UN for recognition, and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear that “unilateral steps will distance peace, not bring it closer”.

Netanyahu also told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee that he has a written commitment from the US administration confirming that any negotiation with the Palestinians will take into account “the facts on the ground”, which of course means the settlements in the West Bank.

Which brings us to the recent demonstrations in Israel against the cost of housing.  Last week-end saw further huge nationwide protests, with some estimates saying that there were 150,000 demonstrators on the streets.  More mass demonstrations are expected this Saturday.

There are two consequences of these protests.  The first is that it may take the government’s eye off international affairs at a crucial time (the unfinished Arab revolts; the threat of a third intifada to coincide with a possible UN vote for recognition of a Palestinian state; Iran).  The second is that the protests about unaffordable housing will be pounced upon by the hard-right as justification for further building of settlements in the West Bank.  As the settler-run news service Arutz 7 put it earlier this week: “There is only one real, decisive, elegant, and relatively quick solution to the housing crisis...to build thousands of housing units every month in Judea and Samaria.”

Of course the settlers are not just interested in solving the housing crisis.  The same commentary added: “The mass construction of tens of thousands of housing units in Judea and Samaria will also...make it clear to the international community once and for all that this is our land and this is where we will build our homes.”