Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Russian elite show little appetite for reform.  The Moscow-based Institute of Contemporary Development (INSOR) says that it has had very little “buy-in” for its hard-hitting report on Russia’s need for reform: Acquiring a Future.  The report provides an insighful and hardhitting analysis of Russia’s ills and what the next president needs to do to secure Russia’s future.  Unfortunately, according to those close to the think tank, the INSOR report has not found “any real buyers among the country’s leadership”.

Boris Makarenko, head of the Institute’s Directorate of Sociopolitical Problems of Development says that the real problem is that even those leaders who are in favour of modernization do not trust the people and want everything to be done top-down.  He says: “In a modern state modernization can only be successful if citizens become full players in the orchestra and the authorities are satisfied with the role of conductor, with a baton that will not be used to beat musicians.”

The report sees the 2012 election as key, saying: “In one year we will choose not just between programmes and personalities, but between the beginning of change and the end of hope, between the future and a new stagnation.”  The report’s final warning is that delays in bringing about renewal destroyed the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union.  It points to worse-case scenarios including economic collapse, an irreversible technological gap, the growth of centrifugal tendencies, and catastrophic depopulation.

One eye-catching statistic: in 2011 the country will have 648,000 18-year olds.  This will have dropped by nearly 10% by 2015, to 590,000.

***  Preparing for a third intifada.  Some 52% of Israelis believe a third intifada will break out if the Palestinians continue with their plans for a unilateral declaration of statehood in September.  In the survey conducted by Dahaf, only 30% of Israelis said they were in favour of negotiating with a Palestinian unity government including Hamas.

*** Shia security chief for Lebanon.  On 18 July, it was confirmed that Lebanon’s Shia community would retain the key post of head of General Security with the appointment of Brigadier-General Abbas Ibrahim. 
Ibrahim, whose previous position was deputy head of Lebanese Army intelligence, is known to maintain close relations with Hezbollah.

here had been hopes among the Christian community that the post would be given to a Maronite.  The security post has been filled by a Muslim since 1998 but before that it had traditionally been held by Christians.