Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

One of the points we have sought to emphasize as the Arab Spring has unfolded is the fact that democracy in the Middle East will not necessarily equate with moderation or pro-Westernism.  Scientific evidence for this can be found in numerous opinion polls, including the latest from the Pew Research group which found only 13% of Jordanians have a favourable view of the US while 47% take a favourable view of Hamas, 36% of Hezbollah, and 15% of al-Qaeda.  To these scientific findings, two pieces of anecdotal evidence can be added this week.

The first was the demonstration on 10 July in front of Jordan’s parliament calling for the release of Ahmad Daqamsih, a former army officer serving a life sentence for killing seven Israeli schoolgirls in 1997.  The demonstrators, who were calling for Daqamsih’s inclusion within the recent General Amnesty Law, included representatives of the opposition, professional associations, and human rights groups.  A spokesman said: “Ahmad Daqamsih is a hero for most Jordanians.  He is being held without justification, particularly since Israeli soldiers kill Palestinians at will without being questioned.”

The second was a programme broadcast by al-Jazeera TV on 9 July about the independence of Southern Sudan.  The channel interviewed 25 unidentified people on the street from Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories.  All were opposed to its secession from the Arab north, and many expressed the opinion that the move was a US/Israeli-orchestrated conspiracy.  The following are some representative quotes:

* “This is a catastrophe on every level

* “This is a premeditated policy that will be implemented on all Arab countries”

* “This is the policy of divide and conquer”

* “Everything that is happening is a conspiracy against all Arab countries”

* “There are hidden intentions behind this secession masterminded by the United Sates or the Zionist enemy”.