Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

It is not often that a politician from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BH) provides the most thought-provoking comment of the week, but the reaction of Nebojsa Radmanovic, chairman of the BH presidency, to the post-election victory speech by Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was a well-judged warning about growing Turkish ambitions.  One can imagine that the private thoughts of Israel’s policymakers were even more forthright.

Erdogan’s Islam-based Justice and Development Party (AKP) won its third consecutive mandate by a higher margin than it achieved in 2007, taking 325 of the 550 seats on offer.  This resounding victory has been attributed primarily to the fact that the AKP has presided over an unprecedented period of economic growth, with per capita income rising from $3,392 in 2002 (the year it began its first mandate) to $10,079 in 2010.

But there are two other factors that are equally important.  The first is that the AKP’s Islamic orientation appeals to Turkey’s pious and conservative poor, allowing the AKP to outflank the secular Kemalist elite (the business element of which has, in any case, become reconciled to the AKP because of the rapid economic growth).

The second is foreign policy.  By moving Turkey away from its excessively pro-Western orientation, where it was constantly begging for membership of a European Union that demonstrably does not want it, Erdogan has restored Turkish pride.  As one example, from being an ally of Israel, Turkey has become a vocal supporter of Palestinian rights.  But now, it would appear from Erdogan’s victory speech, he has much grander pan-regional ambitions – and it is this that has upset the chairman of the BH presidency.

Saluting the AKP’s victory, Erdogan proclaimed from the balcony of his party’s headquarters that “Sarajevo won today as much as Istanbul; Beirut won as much as Izmir; Damascus won as much as Ankara; Ramallah, Nablus, Jenin, the West Bank, Jerusalem won as much as Diyarbakir.”

It was the reference to Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia-Herzegovina (where 48% of the population is estimated to be Muslim, 37% Serb, and 17% Croat), that upset the chairman of the BH presidency.  Radmanovic noted: “New great powers appear who from time to time want to influence matters.  Turkey is a great power [and] wants to demonstrate it...”  Then he warned: “If someone is a friend of any people in BH, let him not give statements which will further divide us in BH...”

With Erdogan declaring that his victory will also be a victory for the people of Ramallah, Nablus, Jenin, the West Bank, and Jerusalem, there will be even greater disquiet in Israel.  In recent times, Erdogan has done little to hide his anti-Israel sentiments, even to the extent that in the run-up to the election he blamed Israel for the concerns expressed about his likely re-election in some sections of the international media.  He said the foreign media were part of “mafia-like organizations” run by “international dark elites” and doing the bidding of Israel.  Now, with his victory statement, Erdogan has strongly reiterated his intention to espouse the cause of the West Bank Palestinians.

There is, of course, nothing wrong with a sympathetic attitude towards the Palestinian cause, and the received opinion in the West is that Israel must respond to the Arab Spring by making a decisive gesture towards peace and reconciliation with the Palestinians.  The problem, however, is that seen from Jerusalem the strategic balance in the Middle East is looking increasingly dangerous, and Erodgan’s remarks have only heightened this feeling of insecurity.

Israel sees Hamas spreading its influence from the Gaza Strip to the West Bank by way of a unity government with Fateh; it sees Egypt moving away from Camp David and facilitating the rapprochement between Hamas and Fateh; it sees Hezbollah consolidating its power in Lebanon; it sees chaos in Libya, Syria, and Yemen (along with the possible return of the Taleban to power in Afghanistan) providing space for post-bin Laden al-Qaeda to regroup; and it sees little prospect of the nuclear-weapon-seeking Iranian regime succumbing to the democratic waves sweeping the Middle East.

Now, on top of all that, Turkey has re-elected the AKP for a third term, in part because of the AKP’s steering of Turkish foreign policy away from its pro-Western orientation towards a policy based on Muslim leadership.  And such a policy, as Erdogan has made clear, has to include opposition to Israel.

We have been arguing since the start of the Arab Spring that these events would make Israel less not more likely to agree to the territorial compromises necessary for peace.  Erdogan’s re-election, and particularly the terms in which he has presented that re-election, can only reinforce that view.  If the Bosnian presidency is alarmed by Erdogan’s victory boasts, Israel’s alarm will be by an order of magnitude greater – and countries make peace when they feel safe, not when they feel threatened.  JdeC.