Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

In the first of two briefings last week on China, we reported on how, at the previous week’s Shangri-La security summit, there had been a strong sense of China’s neighbours no longer trusting Beijing’s protestations of “peaceful rise”.  This feeling of mistrust and confrontation has been reinforced in the past week, with Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines all showing a determination to resist Chinese pressure.

The tone was set for the week by China’s Liu Cigui, director of the State Oceanic Administration.  In a front-page article on 8 June in China Ocean News to mark the UN’s World Oceans Day, Liu said that China intended to step up regular maritime surveillance near the country’s exclusive economic zone and continental shelf.  He said: “It is an arduous task to safeguard our nation’s maritime interests as the international fight for resource and strategic interests grows increasingly intense and complex.”  The tone of Li’s article was particularly noteworthy given that the rest of the world sees World Oceans Day as an opportunity to focus on marine conservation.

His article also coincided with the passage, on 8-9 June, of 11 Chinese naval ships into the Pacific by way of the sea lane between Japan’s Okinawa and Miyako Islands.  The passage of the ships was not an infringement of international law, and China said that the deployment was for the purpose of “routine” drills at the end of the month in international waters in the western Pacific.  But Japan still took the deployment as a threat, with Chief of Staff General Ryoichi Oriki saying: “We are greatly concerned about the fact that the Chinese navy has activated operations.  We will implement warning and surveillance activities as necessary.”

A day later, Japan’s Defence Minister Toshimi Kitazawa added: “Our country’s policy is to keep monitoring Chinese naval vessels with serious concern and gather information on it.”

Also on 9 June, Vietnam complained that again Chinese ships had harassed a Vietnamese vessel conducting a seismic survey in the South China Sea (or East Sea as the Vietnamese call it).  A similar incident had occurred on 26 May, but this time Vietnam responded by conducting a live-fire naval exercise off Quang Nam Province on 13 June.

China, in turn, responded by accusing Vietnam of misrepresenting the 9 June incident and “gravely violating” its sovereignty.  Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei complained: “It must be pointed out that by conducting unlawful oil and gas surveys in seas around the Wanan Bank of the Spratly archipelago and by driving out a Chinese fishing vessel, Vietnam has gravely violated China’s sovereignty and maritime rights.”

Meanwhile, during the past week the Philippines, which has complained of six Chinese intrusions since January, started referring to the “West Philippine Sea” instead of the South China Sea. Likewise, it has started calling Reed Bank “Recto Bank” after Filipino nationalist Claro M Recto.

China, in turn, has accused the Philippines of harming its sovereignty.  On 9 June China’s foreign ministry said: “China asks the Philippine side to stop harming China’s sovereignty and maritime rights and interests...The Philippine side should stop publishing irresponsible statements that do not match the facts.”  China also demanded that the Philippines should seek China’s permission before conducting oil exploration activities in areas that China claims.

A warning to the US

Finally, China warned the US to keep out of the dispute, saying that using the need to maintain freedom of navigation as an excuse for becoming involved was not convincing “because the maritime route has always been peaceful, stable, and free”.

Not surprisingly the US has shown no sign of backing off, and it is currently holding a joint 10-day naval exercise with the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.  A further joint US-Philippines naval exercise will be held from 28 June to 8 July in the Sulu Sea, and the US is due to hold joint naval drills with Vietnam next month.