Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Just as a consensus is emerging in the international community on the need for peace talks with the Taleban in Afghanistan, targeted assassinations of key figures from the anti-Taleban Northern Alliance is bolstering internal Afghan opposition to talks.

On 28 May, the police commander of northern Afghanistan, Gen Daud, was assassinated in what is assumed to have been a Taleban suicide attack (although there is some confusion over the details).  Other senior figures from the Northern Alliance killed recently include Konduz Province police chief Abdorrahman Rahman Sayedkheli, Takhar Province police chief Shah Jahan Nuri (killed with Daud), Kandahar Province police chief Khan Mohammad Mojahed, Konduz governor Engineer Omar, and commander Malek Zarin of Konar province.

The assassination of Daud was considered so serious that President Karzai had to cut short a visit to Turkmenistan.  Karzai’s position is delicate because of his support for talks with the Taleban and his own Pashtun origins.  Change and Hope leader Abdollah, along with many others, responded immediately to the killing by pointing the finger of blame at “hands from the government”.  Karzai, on the other hand, through his spokesman Wahid Omar, blamed terrorists from “outside Afghanistan”, meaning Pakistan.

Beyond the immediate blame game, opponents of the Taleban have seized on the killings to harden their opposition to peace talks.  Interior Minister Besmellah Mohammadi, a former commander of the Northern Alliance, warned: “You will not be able to reach your goals by killing our heroes.”

The independent secular daily Hasht-e Sobh, referring to Karzai’s description of the Taleban as “disenchanted brothers”, said: “Taleban brothers have once again showed what kind of brothers they are...The recent developments in the country showed that begging for peace can only empower the enemy and increase its patience.”

Beyond the politicians and the media, there were protests at universities in Kabul and in the northern cities of Mazar-e Sharif and Konduz against peace talks with the Taleban, hinting at the possibility of increased civil unrest.

The US has said it supports peace talks provided the Taleban cuts its links with al-Qaeda, gives up violence, and accepts the constitution of Afghanistan.  But if the allegations that the killing of Northern Alliance figures have involved the collusion of circles within the government gain widespread acceptance, there is a clear danger to both the reconciliation efforts and the unity of the government.