Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Israel getting nervous about Turkey.  Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is on target for a decisive win in the 12 June general election, and there is even talk of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan leading the Islam-based party to a two-thirds constitution-controlling majority in parliament.  Although Israel is keeping dilomatically quiet, behind the scenes it is alarmed by the prospect of a landslide AKP victory.

Israel’s concern has been heightened by some of the anti-Israeli language used on the election campaign trail, particularly by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.  On 5 June, for instance, he was quoted as telling voters in his home province of Konya: “There cannot be peace in the Middle East if Israel is seen as a ‘privileged’ country that is above international law.  Israel needs to accept being subject to international law as an ordinary nation state.”

Davutoglu also compared Israel unfavourably with Colonel Gaddafi’s regime.  He said: “Israeli is killing civilians...in Gaza.  What sanctions are imposed on it? Libya is [Gaddafi’s] own country.  Killings cannot be legitimized, but it’s something happening in his own country.  Israel is killing people in another country, in the Palestinian territories.  For me this is the main psychological threshold.”

*** Russia still standing by Assad.  Speaking at a news conference in Moscow on 2 June, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated Russia’s opposition to any attempts at regime change in Syria.  He said: “Such attempts are being made and we think it is necessary to prevent them.”

He added: “If [Syria’s] opposition groups continue to think only of how to reject everything that is proposed by the Syrian authorities, I think this would be an absolutely irresponsible approach.”

*** South Korean report warns about North’s special forces.  A report released in Seoul on 7 June, writen by retired general Lee Wong-seung and presented at a forum organized by the army, warned about the capabilities of North Korea’s special forces.

The report claimed that intelligence from defectors suggested that North Korean special forces had the capability to “infiltrate more than 90% of important facilities in South Korea”.

Last December, the latest South Korean defence white paper claimed that the North had increased the number of its special forces by tenfold to 200,000.

The report said that the North’s special forces “have been trained to conduct composite operations, such as major target strikes, assassinations of important figures, and disruptions in rear areas.”