Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Gaddafi in search for solution.  Libyan sources say that Colonel Gaddafi is “strenuously” urging his few remaining international allies to broker a peace deal.

The line Gaddafi is taking is that there will be no military solution either way and negotiations are required.  The alternative is a partition of Libya.  A Libyan minister, speaking anonymously, says that “all issues are negotiable”, which is taken to mean even the replacement of Gaddafi.  However, it would have to be the Libyans themselves who decide, albeit under international supervision.

On a less positive note, the same minister said that if Nato manages to kill Gaddafi that will have no effect as his regime will continue to fight on without Gaddafi.

*** Online jihadists.  Industry experts say that, inspired by the use of social media during the ‘Arab Spring’, jihadist supporters have established a “significant foothold” on both Facebook and Twitter.  However, for the moment, the majority of activity seems to be that of individual jihadist sympathizers rather than organizations.  Also, much of the material is recycled from jihadist websites.  Nevertheless, there is evidence that online jihadist sympathizers are beginning to investigate the possibilities of using Facebook and Twitter as recruitment tools by taking advantage of their inbuilt networking capabilities.

For the moment industry experts say that the jihadist presence on Facebook and Twitter remains “disorganized, fragmented, and experimental”.  But more systematic attempts to turn Facebook and Twitter into effective recruiting tools are expected to develop rapidly.

*** Mexican army could be drawn into politics.  Our sister organization, the LatinNews Intelligence Service, reported this week that the assassination of a key Mexican general, Jorge Juárez Loera, on 21 May, coupled with increasing signs of civil unrest in southern Mexico, is forcing the Mexican military further into politics.

Mexico has never had a military coup and traditionally, governments have scrupulously avoided interfering in military affairs. However, the 2006 decision by President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa to deploy the army to fight drug trafficking gangs upset this balance. So far, the military have been deployed mostly in the north of the country, but a strike by militant teachers in Oaxaca and increasing signs of social tension in other parts of southern Mexico suggest that the government may soon need the already heavily-stretched army to maintain order in the south as well as to fight the drug traffickers in the north. These further deployments could draw the military deeper into politics.