Weekly Report - 11 November 2003

GROWTH OUTLOOK | Third quarter below expectations. Mexico's GDP is likely to grow by only 0.7% in the third quarter, according to the finance ministry, much less than what financial analysts were predicting last month. This will leave the accumulated growth rate at 1%, down from 1.2% in the first half of the year. The driving forces in QIII, says the ministry, will be oil export earnings and domestic retail sales. Ceesp, the private-sector thinktank, has said it expects a 'poor' performance in the third quarter, and a growth rate of 3.24% next year (as against the government's prediction of 3.5%).