Courcy's Special Alerts

Subscribers will know that we view current developments in the Middle East with the gravest possible concern. The image of a ‘perfect storm’ is a much overused metaphor, but on this occasion it is appropriate. We believe that the conditions for the first major Arab-Israeli war since 1973 are germinating. The worst may be avoided, or at least delayed, but signs of a lack of understanding and urgency at the highest levels of Western policymaking increase the chances of a catastrophic miscalculation.

The key background development is that the Arab Spring has increased the influence of public opinion on foreign policy. This can be seen most obviously in Egypt (as detailed in recent issues of Courcy’s Intelligence Brief) and Turkey (which sees pandering to newly enfranchised Arab public opinion as the shortcut to enhanced Turkish status in the Middle East), but consider also the following:

- On 11 September, former Saudi Arabian ambassador to the US, Prince Turki al-Faisal, wrote in the New York Times that “the United States must support the Palestinian bid for statehood at the United Nations this month or risk losing the little credibility it has in the Arab world”.

Most significantly, he added: “If it does not...Saudi Arabia would no longer be able to cooperate with America in the same way it historically has. With most of the Arab world in upheaval, the ‘special relationship’ between Saudi Arabia and the United States would increasingly be seen as toxic by the vast majority of Arabs and Muslims, who demand justice for the Palestinian people. Saudi leaders would be forced by domestic and regional pressures to adopt a far more independent and assertive foreign policy.”

- On 13 September, King Abdullah of Jordan, which like Egypt also has a peace treaty with Israel, told a group of academics: “If I were Israel I would be very concerned because the future of Jordan and Palestine is clearer and stronger than that of Israel.” He added that Jordan had a strong army which it was prepared to use.

In other words, foreign policy in both Saudi Arabia and Jordan, as a consequence of the Arab Spring, is now being driven by public opinion away from US-guided moderation.

And as a result of the above, Israel now faces the prospect of hostile neighbours on five fronts (Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinians, Lebanon/Hezbollah, and Syria), all backed by Turkey, Iran, and now (it seems possible) even Saudi Arabia.

In such circumstances, the prospects of Israel agreeing to the sort of compromises necessary to defuse growing Arab anger are minimal. These are not circumstances in which it is likely to agree to come down off the Golan Heights, to leave the Jordan Valley, or to lift the blockade on the Gaza Strip, even if it were of a mind to reduce tension in the West Bank. Agreeing to the right of return for Palestinian refugees or to Jerusalem becoming the capital of a Palestinian state remain, of course, out of bounds for any Israeli government of any colour.

Western insouciance

Given all this, we have been greatly alarmed by recent remarks from the highest levels of the British policymaking establishment, remarks that reveal an extraordinary lack of insight into (or at least acceptance of) what is happening on the ground in the Middle East.

In the 15 September issue of The Times of London, a senior analyst from the Britain’s most influential and establishment-minded think tank, the Royal Institute for International Affairs (Chatham House), was quoted as saying: “The Arab Spring has rendered the Palestinian conflict irrelevant, a relic of the old system.” The report added that this interpretation is “shared by insiders at the Foreign Office”.

Our own soundings would suggest this is a true assessment of views within the Foreign Office, and there is a ‘head in the sand’ quality about prevailing British and European assessment of what is happening in the Middle East.

Although verging on the Apocalyptic, the following assessment in today’s Haaretz newspaper shows a firmer grasp of reality. Referring to the expected Palestinian bid for UN membership next week, the Israeli commentary says:

“The combination of the Arab Spring with the Palestinian September could create a perfect storm. Since the big Arab revolution is not offering real hope, it awakens rage and hatred. The first wave of hatred was focused on Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi, and Bashar Assad. The second wave will be focused on Israel. Facing the wave will be transient, weak Arab leaders who will have difficulty containing it.

“If Palestinians are killed at Jerusalem’s gates – Cairo, Amman, and Istanbul will rage and storm. If an alert squad in some [Jewish West Bank] settlement opens fire at Palestinians descending on it – the Middle East will tremble. In the newly created historic situation there are no shock absorbers. No stabilizing forces. Every isolated incident could instantly turn into a strategic one. The quiet is hanging by a thread.”

It is deeply worrying that the British foreign office and others appear not to see the dangers.