Courcy’s Intelligence Brief
Russia shows its nerves on Central Asia
In February this year, the influential International Crisis Group (ICG) issued a warning about the stability of Central Asia, warning of a “catastrophic systemic collapse”. This week, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff, General Nikolay Makarov, issued his own warning about the possibility of the Arab Spring being repeated in Central Asia.
The essence of the ICG thesis is that 20 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Soviet-built infrastructure of Central Asia has decayed and is not being replaced. It warned: “Quietly but steadily Central Asia’s basic human and physical infrastructure – the roads, power plants, hospitals and schools and the last generation of Soviet-trained specialists who have kept this all running – is disappearing.” The two worst affected countries are Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, but Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are “heading in the same direction”. According to the ICG report: “There is little hope that the downward spiral in these four countries can be stopped.”
On 12 September, General Makarov said that events similar to those seen in Libya and Syria could happen in Central Asia. He warned: “We have similar questions in Central Asian states [and] we should be ready for everything.”