Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Pakistan curbs religious activity in army.  A non-violent proselytising Islamic organization called Dawat-e-Islami has been causing concern in Pakistan because of its reported successes within the military.  The security guard implicated in the assassination in January of former Punjab governor Salman Taseer was a follower of Dawat-e-Islami.  This was the first time that the organization had been linked to a violent act and it changed views on the group and in particular on its growing influence within the armed forces.  The group was founded in 1980 and is said to have hundreds of thousands of supporters.  The military authorities are now said to have decided to curtail the group’s activities on the basis of the latest intelligence estimates.

*** Pakistan denies Iran transit link to India.  On 8 September, Iran and Pakistan signed three Memorandum of Understanding (MoUs) following a two-day Joint Economic Commission meeting in Islamabad, but Pakistan disappointed Iran over a transit route to India.  The two countries signed a Road Transportation agreement in 2008, but under the terms of the agreement a transit facility may not be granted unless both countries have an agreement with the third country in question, and Pakistan does not have an agreement in place with India.  However, both sides agreed to increase bilateral trade from $1.5bn to $4.5bn over the next three years.

A gas pipeline project linking the South Pars field to Pakistan is expected to reach the Pakistan border within a year to eighteen months.  There is some doubt, however, as to when or whether it will continue on to India as originally planned.  A continuation of the pipeline to China is said to be under consideration.  The initial capacity of the pipeline will be 22bn cubic metres of natural gas per annum rising to 55bn cubic metres.

*** Israel’s ‘nightmare scenario’.  Earlier this week, Defence Minister Ehud Barak reportedly urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take a more strategic approach to Israel’s growing diplomatic isolation.  He pointed to the following linked problems: the deteriorating situation with Turkey, Egypt, and the Palestinians; the loss of “intimacy” with the United States; and Israel’s “precarious position” with the Middle East Quartet and the European Union ahead of the vote on Palestinian statehood.

Sources say that senior figures believe that Netanyahu is spending too much time putting out fires and not enough addressing the larger strategic position.  The greatest fear now is that Jordan might turn its back on its peace treaty with Israel, either in an attempt by King Abdullah to placate the Muslim Brotherhood or as a consequence of Abdullah being overthrown in a new Arab revolt.  Losing its peaceful eastern border in addition to the difficulties being experienced along the Egyptian border, the instability in Syria, and the long-term threat from Hezbollah in Lebanon is Israel’s nightmare scenario.