Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

US-Pakistan relations seemed to be improving slightly following the arrest on 5 September of senior al-Qaeda operative Sheikh Younis al-Mauritani in a joint Pakistani intelligence/CIA operation.  However, in the days following the 13 September attacks on the US embassy and Nato buildings in Kabul, which the US has blamed on the Pakistan-based Haqqani network, a series of US officials have made clear their continuing disenchantment with Islamabad.  Most publicly (and bluntly), the US ambassador to Pakistan Cameron  Munter told Radio Pakistan on 16 September “There is evidence linking the Haqqani network to the Pakistan government.  This is something that must stop.”  Pakistani officials have responded by warning the US about the level of anti-US sentiment in Pakistan, while the Pakistani press’s praise for Prime Minister Yusuf Raza  Gillani’s recent trip to Iran reinforces the point about where public sentiment lies.

he breach of Pakistani sovereignty by US forces is what is causing the biggest difficulty for Pakistan, yet US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta raised this spectre again when he said after the 13 September attacks that the US will do everything necessary to defend allied forces in Afghanistan against attacks by the Haqqani group, including launching attacks on the militants’ bases in Pakistan.  This prompted a Pakistani foreign office spokesman to warn: “Any unilateral action on Pakistan’s soil will have disastrous ramifications for ties between Islamabad and Washington.”

One retired general, Abdul Qayyum, wrote on 19 September: “If the United States believes that it can conduct an operation against the Haqqani network in Pakistan it should know that any such step would be declared as a violation of the Geneva Convention and will be counted as an attack on a sovereign country.  I hope the Americans will not initiate any such war.”

The legality of such attacks is being taken up by Pakistan’s Human Rights Ministry (HRM), which has decided to raise the issue of drone attacks with the United Nations’ Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary, or arbitrary executions.  At a media briefing on 19 September, the prime minister’s adviser Mustafa Nawaz Khokar said that the US was showing “a blatant disregard for international law, customary law, treaties, and conventions”.

The alternative is for Pakistan itself to deal with the Haqqani network, but on 16 September Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Ishfaq Parvez Kayani told a Nato defence chiefs meeting in Spain that Pakistan would “formulate policy in accordance with its national interests” and (he emphasized) “the wishes of the Pakistani people”.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar also emphasized the issue of Pakistani public opinion in discussions in New York with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on 19 September, saying that anti-American sentiment was running very strongly and that officials needed to work on improving the US’s image in Pakistan.

This is a serious problem.  In a briefing in our 20 July issue we looked at anti-Americanism in Pakistan.  We noted that during the past six months, the growing estrangement between Pakistan and the US had been reflected in every Pakistani newspaper and media outlet of note, particularly in their commentaries on the Raymond Davies affair in March, the killing of Osama bin Laden in early May, Hillary Clinton’s visit in late May, the ongoing US drone attacks on terrorist targets within Pakistan, and the US calls for a military offensive in North Waziristan.

In the past week, the way in which the Pakistani media has dealt with Prime Minister Yusuf Gillani’s 13-14 September visit to Iran makes the same point in a different way.  They are all positive about Pakistan-Iran relations, and some specifically see close ties with Iran as a balance to an historic over-reliance on the United States – and as a necessary precaution ahead of the US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.  Here are some representative examples:

- Daily Times (Lahore-based anti-jihadist moderate English-language daily):

"Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gillani's visit to Iran signals...a paradigm shift in Pakistan's foreign policy...The 'shift' referred to may be seen as disillusionment with excessive reliance on the US or the West, traditionally Islamabad's preferred partners, and a 'return' to seeking regional cooperation...The new energy in Pakistan-Iran relations is of a piece with the tectonic power shifts taking place in the region as the Afghan endgame approaches."

- The Nation (Islamabad-based conservative nationalist English-language daily):

"The nation, fed up with the pro-US policies of the PPP [Pakistan People's Party]-led government that have badly undermined our national interests, would feel delighted to learn that Pakistan has finally revamped its foreign policy and decided to develop 'very close' relations with its neighbours...The changing global scenario and the role the US has been playing in creating turmoil in the region should make the neighbouring countries think in terms of moving away from the US; and, in our context, Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey should join hands and as a single unit to address these issues."

- Pakistan Observer (Islamabad-based pro-military English-language daily):

"Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gillani's two-day visit to Iran has proved to be a highly productive one as it has brought the two brotherly countries still closer in different fields...Islamabad wants a very close relationship with Tehran and to give fresh impetus to the existing bilateral ties...It appeared that the two sides are determined to move swiftly towards this direction."

- Daily Express (Islamabad edition of Karachi-based widely-sold moderate Urdu daily):

"Iran and Pakistan are extending cooperation with each other.  They can make good progress in all the sectors by establishing mutual trade markets... It is necessary that traders are provided with facilities to enhance trade with Iran."

- Jinnah (Islamabad-based Urdu daily):

"Pakistan is facing a serious energy crisis these days.  Huge investment is needed for this purpose.  Cooperation with Iran in the energy sector should be enhanced.  In this regard, Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gillani has reached Iran on an official visit...It is the need of the hour that the energy projects with Iran are completed at the earliest."

- Nawa-i-Waqt (Rawalpindi-based conservative nationalist Urdu daily):

"[An] alliance of Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, and Afghanistan is the most important need of the hour.  These countries should demonstrate unity to become such a power which can foil designs of the enemies of Islam."

Policy implications

There are two aspects to all this.  There is the undeniable anti-Americanism of Pakistani public opinion, which plays an important role, but this is also complemented by the growing feeling within Pakistan policymaking circles that the US can and should be prevented from remaining in Afghanistan after 2014 by the combined diplomatic efforts of Pakistan, China, Russia, and Iran.

Pakistani sources say that Islamabad is involved in intensive diplomatic efforts to this end, and in particular it is trying to persuade Tehran that a return of the Taleban to influence in Kabul is a lesser evil than a permanent American presence.  Tehran seems to have accepted this provided the Taleban’s primary area of influence is confined to the southeast of the country.

A Pakistani foreign ministry official was quoted late last week as saying: “Discussions in Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Islamabad right now are focusing on how these regional players should take a lead role in the transition in Afghanistan.”  Against this, in testimony to Congress in March, US Deputy Undersecretary of Defence Michele Flournoy said that the US will continue to carry out counter-terrorism operations from bases in Afghanistan “well beyond 2014”.

On 19 September, discussing the foreign minister’s talks with Clinton in New York, a Pakistani foreign ministry spokesman said: “We attach importance to US relations and wish to work towards a friction-free relationship”.  That would seem to be an unlikely outcome given the present alignment between popular anti-American sentiment in Pakistan and the similar views of influential sections of the policymaking establishment in Islamabad.