Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

We have made the point a number of times before, but what concerns us most about China’s actions in the East and South China Seas is its apparent indifference to the consequences of its actions.  This week has provided another small example.

President Benigno Aquino of the Philippines has been in Japan this week for talks with Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda about ways to boost Japan-Philippines bilateral relations, and these talks have included discussions on how to collaborate over maritime security in the face of increasing Chinese assertiveness.

In a joint statement issued after their talks, the two leaders reaffirmed the necessity of strengthening bilateral cooperation in the field of maritime security.  The joint statement said that the two countries agreed “to promote exchanges and cooperation between their defence authorities” such as reciprocal visits between the Chief of Staff of Japanese Maritime Self Defence Forces (JMSDF) and the flag officer of the Philippine Navy, port calls in the Philippines by JMSDF, and the holding of the Japan-Philippines maritime chief of staff meetings.

After the meeting, President Aquino said: “I was satisfied with our exchange of views on regional concerns of mutual interest.  Being both maritime countries, we affirmed our abiding interest in cooperating on maritime security issues.”

This sort of mutual collaboration over maritime security issues between Japan and other Asian countries is exactly the sort of development that China has been telling Tokyo it should not indulge in.  China accepts Japan-US defence ties as “a bilateral arrangement created under special historical conditions”, but it says as often as it can that this “should not go beyond its bilateral scope”.  But Japan has been developing trilateral cooperation with the US and Australia, and it has been increasing bilateral collaboration with South Korea and the Philippines, both of course US allies.

On 28 September, following Aquino’s visit to Japan, China’s Defence Ministry issued a statement saying: “Any move which is designed to multilateralize or internationalize the South China isssue will make the question more complex and neither will it help.”  Spokesman Geng Yansheng added that China has “incontestable sovereignty” over the islands of the South China Sea and surrounding waters.  He added: “We hope that concerned parties will behave in line with the interests of regional peace and stability.”

In view of these sensitivities, it might have been thought that China would not seek to provoke further anxiety in Japan on the eve of President Aquino’s visit.  But, on the contrary, on 25 September a Chinese marine research ship was found conducting an unauthorized survey in Japan’s exclusive economic zone near to the disputed Senkaku Islands.  China was informed that Japan could not allow marine research in the area without its consent.

It was a small incident, but symptomatic nonetheless.