Caribbean & Central America - November 2011 (ISSN 1741-4458)

*** EASTERN CARIBBEAN GROWTH REVISED DOWN.  On 21 October, a meeting of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) was told that growth in 2011 is now expected to be just 0.4% after two consecutive years of negative growth in 2009 and 2010.  According to the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB), there was a further contraction of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2011, followed by a small recovery in the second quarter.

 The most positive factor was a 6.5% increase in tourist arrivals in the second quarter year-on-year.  The ECCB added: “In addition, a recorded increase in imports of building and construction materials, coupled with an increase in commercial bank credit for home construction and renovation, suggests that construction activity was at a higher level relative to the second quarter of the previous year.”  The main drag on ECCU economies is the continuing economic difficulties in the world’s advanced economies which will hold back tourism recovery.

*** GEARING UP FOR GUYANA ELECTIONS.  Guyana will hold its general election on 28 November.  The ruling People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/Civic), under its new presidential candidate Donald Ramotar, is seeking a fifth successive term (it came to power in 1992 after 24 years of People’s National Congress (PNC) rule).  The PNC-Reform (PNCR) is bidding for power with the Alliance for Change (AFC) under the banner of A Partnership for National Unity (APNU).  In the August 2006 election, PPP/Civic won 36 seats out of 65, with the PNC taking 22 and the AFC five. 

   The PPP/Civic is running its campaign on a safety-first basis, trying to overcome the disadvantages of long incumbency by arguing that this is not a time to rock the boat.  It is helped in this by a good recent economic record, with 2010 being its fifth consecutive year of robust growth (3.4%)  There were some concerns in the IMF’s June report, for instance about inflation which picked up to 4.4% in 2010 from 3.7% in 2009; about the external current account deficit (11.4% in 2010 from 8.8% in 2009); and a fiscal deficit of 4.3% of GDP against a budget of 3.2% and a 2009 figure of 3.4%.  However the IMF says that growth levels should stay “above the long-run trend of 3%, to around 5% over the medium term” – partly due to the government’s Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) and private sector investments in gold, oil, and gas sectors.  The IMF’s growth projections for 2011 and 2012 are, respectively, 4.8% and 6.0%.

   At the launch of the PPP/Civic’s manifesto, outgoing President Bharrat Jagdeo said: “Donald Ramotar has the skills…he is one of the key generators of ideas, and he is very receptive to new ideas, two skills that are very much absent in his competitors.” Jagdeo also sought to play up the past failures of APNU candidates, saying that many were “the architects of the economic ruins that this country has witnessed”.  David Granger, of the PNCR, is the coalition’s presidential candidate who Jagdeo has accused of being involved in the theft of ballot boxes during “the era of oppression” (see sidebar). 

  Although 19 years of power, and a new presidential candidate might count against the PPP/C, it does have advantages.  In addition to its decent economic record, it has numbers on its side.  It is supported principally by Guyanese of East Indian extraction, who make up 43.5% of the population against the Afro-Guayanese 30.2% (16.7% are mixed race, 9.1% Amerindian, and 0.5% Other).

• Granger

 In July last, Jagdeo said: “Granger still has his record to answer for...Lots of bad things happened [when he was in the military].” According to Jagdeo, Granger “wasn’t a regular soldier, he was someone sent from the office of the president to get the army to move in a particular direction and you know what that direction was, to subvert the constitution and the laws...”