Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Fearing that the successful outcome of Nato’s campaign in Libya might embolden it to take similar action in Syria, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has issued his sternest warning yet against such a move.

Speaking in Abu Dhabi on 1 November, Lavrov warned: “The replication of the Libyan model would have extraordinary geopolitical consequences not just for the Middle East and North Africa but also for many other regions in the world.”

Then, in what our sources say was intended as a threat that Russia would not stand by and watch an intervention in Syria, Lavrov warned: “Isolation is not our approach”.  He said: “If something goes wrong in Syria, many countries in the region will be affected in an extremely negative way.  We cannot support isolation [of Russia] because of the Libyan lesson.”  Lavrov added that his concerns were real and mounting because Russia was “hearing from very respected Nato members that the Libyan operation is a model for the future”.

On another point, on 1 November the chairman of the Federation Council Security and Defence Issues Committee, Viktor Ozerov, warned that Russia may “raise the issue” of withdrawing from the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) if it cannot reach agreement with Nato on missile defence in Europe.