Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** New source of tension for Turkey and Israel.  Turkey is to launch a new military intelligence satellite next year, called Gogturk, which will enable it to gather high-resolution images of Europe, the Caucasus, and the Middle East, including Israel.  Israel has been lobbying France and Italy to stop helping with the project.  Israel is concerned that Turkey might sell sensitive images to hostile states and the Palestinians.  Turkey has said it is up to it how it uses images from its own satellite.

An official from Turkey’s Defence Ministry said on 1 November: “For years Israel has obtained images of our territory.  For the first time we will have a satellite for intelligence.  Reciprocity is essential in international relations.  If they observe Turkish soil, Turkey has the same right.”

 *** Pakistan and Iran.  Former Pakistani foreign secretary Tanvir Ahmad Khan (1989-90) has been arguing for a much closer relationship between Pakistan and Iran based on spheres of influence in Afghanistan and energy supplies.  Khan’s view is that provided Iran does not seek the dominance of Afghanistan by non-Pashtun factions, and Pakistan does not seek the supremacy of the Taleban, then a deal can be done.  Writing in The Express Tribune on 31 October, he argued: “Iran may be a dangerous country in the Western perception, but for Pakistan it can only be a source of strength.”

In Khan’s view, Pakistan should stop dithering, and reject American pressure, over a proposed gas pipeline project with Iran.  He concluded: “It is time that instead of dithering because of exaggerated fears of international displeasure, Islamabad becomes more proactive in arriving at a new strategic understanding with Tehran.”

*** Philippines rejects China’s ‘sounds of cannons’ threat.  Last week we highlighted a threat issued by China through the Communist Party-run Global Times that China might seek a military solution to territorial disputes in the South China Sea.  An editorial in the paper warned: “If these countries don’t want to change their ways with China, they will need to mentally prepare for the sounds of cannons.”  It added: “If a situation turns ugly, some form of military action is necessary.”

In comments published on 28 October, Lt General Juancho Sabban, chief of the Philippines Armed Forces Western Command, said: “Any threat, any intrusion, or any violation in the code of conduct of claimant countries, we are determined to protect our territory and sovereignty...Mere deployment of missiles or ‘the sound of cannons’ will not scare us from protecting our own territory.”

It is perhaps significant that Sabban made his comments during the course of a joint Philippines-US amphibious landing exercise.