Mexico & Nafta - November 2011 (ISSN 1741-444X)

The gubernatorial election in Michoacán on 13 November is close. Each of the three main national parties, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) and the Partido de la Revlución Democrática (PRD), which currently rules the western state, has a chance of winning the governorship. What may determine the result is how violent the state is in the run-up to the election. The greater the violence the more likely a change of government.

The election in Michoacán is the last major electoral test before the presidential and congressional elections next July.

The election is particularly interesting because Michoacán is President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa’s home state and his sister, Luisa María (known as Cocoa), is running as the PAN’s candidate. The state will also elect mayors and local deputies on 13 November. If Luisa María wins, the candidacy of Josefina Vázquez Mota, for the PAN’s presidential nomination, is likely to be boosted. Vázquez Mota is not, however, President Calderón’s preferred candidate for his party’s presidential nomination: rather backing Ernesto Cordero.

Michoacán has not flourished under the current PRD administration. It has one of the highest public debts, lowest educational attainments, poorest GDP and employment growth of any Mexican state. The state government argues that this is because of the deployment of federal troops and marines to fight drug traffickers. Michoacán was the first state into which President Calderón sent the armed forces on taking office in 2006.

Since the campaign formally started at the beginning of September at least 80 people have been killed by gangsters in the state, raising the year’s total to 286 (on 28 October). This is fewer than the 586 who perished in 2006, prompting Calderón’s decision to send in the troops, but up on the 259 who were killed by gangsters in the whole of 2010. The figures come from Reforma’s Ejecutómetro.

The death toll rose precipitately in the last week of October when at least 14 people were killed (a dozen had their throats cut) on 28 October.

The violence has affected the parties’ campaigning. All are taking security measures and restricting the impromptu walkabouts of their candidates.

Opinion polls: End October opinion polls for the election in Michoacán showed the PRD’s candidate, Silvano Aureoles, running a poor third behind Luisa María Calderón of the PAN.

Jalisco: The success of the Panamerican games, which concluded on 30 October,  has yet to prompt Emilio González , the governor of the state of Jalisco, to announce that he will run for the PAN’s nomination for the presidency.

The games were a success on every level and gave the rest of Mexico a “feel good” boost. They were not interrupted by violence and were smoothly organised and culminated in a magnificent closing ceremony in Guadalajara.

Mexico, as a competitor, also did surprisingly well, coming fourth in the medal table behind the US, Cuba and Brazil.

Politically, the games could be significant because were quietly and efficiently policed, mostly by volunteers.