Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

The past week has reinforced the impression that Japan is determined not to be cowed by China.  On 2 November, it was announced that India and Japan are to increase their bilateral military ties.  On 7 November, senior Japanese politicians met with the Dalai Lama in Tokyo.

India’s Defence Minister AK Antony and his Japanese counterpart Yasuo Ichikawa met in Tokyo on 2 November and pledged to “actively pursue consultations and cooperation in the field of maritime security”.  In 2012 the two sides will hold a defence dialogue in Tokyo and they will increase mutual visits of naval ships and aircraft and carry out bilateral military exercises.

Rajiv Bhatia, a former Indian ambassador who attended an India-Japan maritime security dialogue in Tokyo last month, explains the nature of current India-Japan collaboration in the following terms.  He says that while Japan adheres to the US’s ‘hubs-and-spokes’ alliance policy in Asia, with the US as the hub, it also believes that this “needs to be reinforced by the spokes (such as Japan and India) networking with each other more closely”.  The problem with this, from China’s point of view, is that such a development begins to look more like a ‘contain China’ network of alliances.

On 7 November, a number of Japanese ruling party and opposition parliamentarians met with the Dalai Lama in Tokyo.   Among those meeting the Tibetan spiritual leader was Akihisa Nagahima, special adviser to Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda on foreign and defence affairs.  Also present was Shu Watanabe, senior vice defence minister.  It was the first meeting between the Dalai Lama and senior members of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan since it came to power in 2009.  China responded by saying that the Dalai Lama “is not a regular religious figure but a political exile engaged for a long period in activities designed to split China”.