Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

The past week has seen further indications of the perennial suspicions between India and China.  There has also been a deepening of the territorial spat between China and the Philippines and the fuelling of Beijing’s fears that the US is pursuing a policy to contain China.

On 15 November, India’s Defence Minister AK Antony said that India was working to match China’s military capabilities because of its concerns about China’s intentions.  He said: “China is expanding its military capabilities, and their infrastructure in the border area is also increasing substantially and we are concerned about that.”

Antony added: “We have been improving our infrastructure and military capabilities in the eastern sector.  We are strengthening our military capability and infrastructure not for confrontation but to protect our territory and also to build an effective deterrence...so that we can protect every inch of Indian territory.”

Back in March, India’s Northern Army Commander Lt-General KY Parnaik had warned about the “steadily increasing presence” of China in “Gilgit-Baltistan and the northern areas”, saying that “Chinese footprints are too close for comfort”.  He added that the nexus between the Chinese and Pakistani military “jeopardises our regional strategic interests in the long run and facilitates speedy and enhanced deployment of Pakistan armed forces to complement China’s military operations”.

On 15 November, India test-fired an advanced version of its nuclear-capable Agni-II ballistic missile from an island off the coast of the eastern state of Orissa.  The missile, with a range of 3,000km, is to be called Agni-IV from now on and it fills the gap between the 2000km-range Agni-II and the 3,500km-range Agni-III.

Meanwhile, in the Philippines, local media have reported that the government is “alarmed” that China is demanding the immediate halt of the bidding process for oil exploration in Areas 3 and 4 northwest of Palawan province. 

The Philippines is particularly alarmed because they do not consider these two areas to be part of the disputed areas of the South China Sea but are within the country’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).  The areas are just 80km from Palawan.  Philippines officials were quoted by local media on 15 November as saying: “We have made this very clear to [China].  These are not part of the disputed areas.”

China, by contrast, has said that continuing with the bidding process “would affect stability in the region”.  It has called on the Philippines “to immediately withdraw the bidding offer for Areas 3 and 4” and to refrain from any action “that infringes on [China’s] sovereignty and sovereign rights”.

More US alliance building

In another China development during the past week, at last week-end’s Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec) summit in Honolulu, US President Barack Obama said that he hoped the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), formed in 2005, could agree a legal framework within a year.

Japan has also indicated that it would like to join the initial membership group of the US, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, Chile, and Peru.  But China is significantly excluded, and Chinese commentary since last week-end’s Apec summit has tended to portray the initiative as yet another element in the US’s ‘contain China’ strategy.

Lu Hongjun, president of the Shanghai-based Institute of International Finance, summed up the Chinese reponse to this development when he said: “The absence of the world’s second-largest economy and largest exporter [China] in the TPP talks reflects Washington’s objective to dominate the region, which is key to US strategy to maintain its global leadership...It is a great challenge to China.”