Caribbean & Central America - December 2011 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Guyana went to the polls on 28 November with the ruling People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) seeking a straight fifth term in office, but with a new presidential candidate: Donald Ramotar.  Following a very tight election, the announcement of the results was delayed, prompting the Organization of American States (OAS) observer mission to say: “It is unfortunate that, following a generally well-administered election up to and including polling day the failure to ensure the timely dissemination of results may undermine the good work done thus far.”  At 22.00 hours local time on 30 November it looked as if the PPP/C had just scraped home for a fifth term, but there was clearly still some wrangling and recriminations – perhaps even violence - to come.

The first indication that the election had been a tight one came with the failure to publish preliminary election results as planned on 29 November and with calls (later withdrawn) from the PPP/C for recounts in nearly 50 polling stations despite having confidently declared itself the winner earlier in the day.

According to the partial results released by the local electoral authorities (Gecom) of the 275,940 valid votes so far tallied, the PPP/C, which has the backing of Guyanese nationals of East Indian origin, took 136,881 votes (or 49.6%). The opposition coalition, A Partnership for National Unity (APNU), which fielded retired army commander, David Granger, of the People’s National Congress Reform (PNCR) and draws support from the Afro-Guyanese population, took 109,673 votes (39.7%). The Alliance for Change (AFC), which seeks support across racial lines, took 28,638 votes (10.3%), while the conservative United Force (TUF), 748 (0.3%).

The results suggest a drop in support for the PPP/C (from 54.6% in the last election in 2006) and an increase in backing for the APNU (it polled 34% in 2006) and the AFC (8.4% in 2006) although is a far cry from the breakthrough initially declared by the AFC: the opposition party claimed that it was “assured in the knowledge that it has made significant inroads in breaking the toxic scourge of racial voting [see sidebar].  The party has solidified its status as the conscience of the nation and is enthused by the support it has received from a wide cross-section of Guyanese, which demonstrates that there is a significant shift away from traditional voting patterns.” 

The PPP/C’s campaign was ultimately helped by its economic record.  2010 was the fifth consecutive year of growth, with a 3.4% advance, and the IMF’s growth projections for 2011 and 2012 are 4.8% and 6.0%.  These factors seem to have outweighed the disadvantages of long incumbency and a change in leadership, and they enabled the PPP/C once again to capitalize on the numerical superiority of its core East Indian support base.  However, the return of the PPP/C to power in such a tight election will have done nothing to ease Guyana’s underlying social tensions.

• Racial composition

Guyanese of East Indian origin make up 43.5% of the population, with Afro-Guyanese accounting for 30.2% and people of mixed race 16.7%.  Reflecting this numerical superiority, the Indian-oriented PPP/C won 36 out of 65 seats in the 2006 elections.  The Afro-supported People’s National Congress (PNCR) won 22 seats, while the Alliance for Change (AFC) won five seats with 8.4% of the vote.