Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Philippines and China continue to bicker.  On 8 January, the Philippines filed a diplomatic protest to China over separate incursions of two Chinese civilian ships and a naval vessel in the Sabina (or Escoda) Shoal in the South China Sea (or West Philippine Sea as Manila now calls it).  There have been references to a “creeping invasion” by China.  China has responded, as usual, by calling the complaints groundless and asserting its “indisputable sovereignty”.  The Philippines points out that the Escoda Shoal is just under 124 nautical miles from Palawan and thus “within Philippine sovereignty and maritime protection”.

*** Indonesia cautious about US ‘rebalance’ to Asia-Pacific.  The publication of the US Department of Defence’s Priorities for 21st Century Defence, with its emphasis on rebalancing US security posture towards the Asia-Pacific region and containment of China, has sparked a strong debate in Indonesia.  As we pointed out in our 23 November 2011 issue, Indonesia is the one important Asian country that remains cautious about being seen to side with the US against China.  Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa has warned against provoking “a reaction and counter-reaction that could create a vicious cycle of tensions and mistrust”.

China has been promising Jakarta huge support for infrastructure development, and the two countries have pledged to increase cooperation in energy and industry and even defence, and to develop a China-Indonesia strategic partnership.  Some Indonesian politicians are also suspicious of the US plan to base troops in the Australian city of Darwin.  People’s Representative Council Chairman Mahfudz Siddik speculated on 21 November that the stationing of US troops in Darwin “is a US manoeuvre in response to...the situation in the eastern part of Indonesia, particularly the situation in Papua and security concerns at Freeport [a US mining company operating in Papua]...” 

Now influential voices can be heard arguing that the US “rebalancing” will lead to escalating tension.  As Bantarto Bandoro of Indonesia Defence University put it on 12 January: “Indonesia must take a stance that won’t be regarded as support for US policy in the Asia-Pacific.  The Indonesian government must issue a statement telling the US that Obama’s new policy should not disrupt the situation and condition in the region.”

*** Israel looks to India.  India’s External Affairs Minister SM Krishna has been in Israel this week, the first Indian foreign minister to visit Israel for more than a decade.  The visit was exceptionally warm, and Krishna called India “a natural ally of Israel”.  Israel is India’s second biggest defence supplier after Russia.  The two countries are now trying to expand this relationship with joint research and development initiatives.  Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu promised to look at “all areas of cooperation” and President Shimon Peres called India “the greatest democracy on earth”.