Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Following the succession in December in North Korea of the untested Kim Jong-un to his late father Kim Jong-il, South Korean governmental sources suggested that Kim Jong-un could face a revolt from the inner circle of power because of his inexperience and youth.  The dangers of this were counter-balanced by the swift move by China to support the new regime with food and other aid, however news of Kim Jong-un’s rather frantic efforts to curry favour with the army do suggest his position is not yet fully secure.

According to analysis of North Korean state media, during the month of January Kim Jong-un paid eight visits to military units, compared with just one made in the same month last year by his father.  If you add in a visit to a military institute and attendance at a concert by a military orchestra, the total comes to 10.

Baek Seung-joo of the Korea Institute of Defence Analyses says: “The fact that Kim Jong-un is making such frequent visits to military units is evidence that he does not enjoy solid support within the armed forces.”  Kim has little if any military experience despite being created a four-star general in October 2010.  As the country’s new leader, he is now supreme commander of the armed forces.

Japanese sources say that China decided to supply North Korea with 500,000 tonnes of food and 250,000 tonnes of crude oil immediately after Kim Jong-il’s death.