Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Russia and Turkey: an uneasy relationship.  Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has been in Moscow, and speaking to journalists on his return he was upbeat about the relationship, saying: “Ten years ago, for the Turkish and Russian foreign ministers to take up the entire geography from the Balkans to the Black Sea and from the Middle East to Central Asia would have been inconceivable.” He talked to Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov about collaboration throughout all these regions, and in discussions about Russia’s promotion of a Eurasian Union, Davutoglu told Lavrov: “Our perspective is that on one side there is the European Union, and on the other side the Chinese economy.  In the middle there is cooperation between Russia and Turkey.”

But this is not at all how Russia sees things.  The idea that Turkey should muscle in on Russia’s Eurasian Union will not have been at all pleasing to Russian ears.  Increasingly, Moscow sees Turkey as a challenge, and this is one (admittedly amongst many) of the reasons it is determined to continue its support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria.  Russia is not in favour Syria falling to the Turkish-backed Muslim Brotherhood ascendancy that is sweeping the Middle East, because of the dangers that poses for increased Islamist militancy in the Caucasus.  The Kremlin is also, of course, keen to stop the domino effect of the Arab Spring at a time when its influence is beginning to affect Russia itself.

*** Russia says no deal with Japan.  Russia’s presidential envoy to the Far East Federal District, Viktor Ishayev, has rejected any idea of a vote on whether the disputed Kuril Islands should return to Japanese sovereignty.  On 31 January, he said: “No one is going to put the question of sovereignty over the Kurils to a vote.  The Kurils are Russian lands.”  He also rejected the idea that solving the Kurile dispute with Japan would lead to much greater Japanese investment in the Russian Far East.  He said: “When Japanese businesses want to work in the Russian Far East, to take part in oil, gas, coal projects, they forget about the territorial dispute around the Kuril Islands.”

*** Japan protests to China over gas field.  Japan believes China has been drilling for natural gas in a disputed field in the East China Sea, known as Kashi in Japanese and Tianwaitian in Chinese.  The field is just to the west of what Japan says is the median line between the two countries’ exclusive economic zones.  They had agreed not to develop the field unilaterally. 

Japan’s chief cabinet secretary Osamu Fujimura said on 1 February that the move violates their agreement to jointly develop gas resources in the disputed area.  China appears to have carried on developing Kashi despite the stalling of talks on joint development in 2010.