Caribbean & Central America - February 2012 (ISSN 1741-4458)

In late January and early February Costa Rica made headlines due to two major security developments. The first, a large cocaine seizure, was great news for the government; the other, the theft of hundreds of weapons from a police depot, could have had a much more negative impact on the administration of President Laura Chinchilla if it had happened a year ago. The explanation for this is simple: public perceptions don’t always go hand-in-hand with reality and there is a time lag between changes in security threat levels and the public’s perception of such changes, regardless of whether they constitute an improvement or step backward.

President Chinchilla campaigned on the promise of improving citizen security and after 20 months in office she can celebrate some progress. According to official data from the judicial investigations’ office (OIJ), Costa Rica’s murder rate decreased to 10 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2011 from the 11.6 rate recorded in 2010. This improvement was somewhat reflected in an opinion poll conducted by Unimer during early January (4-10), in which 39% of the 1,200 respondents cited insecurity as their principal concern; in June 2011, 49% had put insecurity at the top of their list, marking a historic record.

The drop is interesting because it coincided with an unprecedented coordinated theft of weapons from the headquarters of the transit police, currently being remodelled. The four armed men stole 215 Glock 9mm handguns, police uniforms and bullet-proof vests, raising questions as to whether they seized the weapons for a specific criminal group or if they intended to sell them in the black market - the cache’s value was put at some ¢172m (US$339,184).

However, just two days later, authorities trumpeted a large cocaine seizure - 1.96 tonnes (t) - and the arrest of two Costa Ricans and three Colombians in relation to the raid. In fact, in just three seizures (to 2 February), authorities had confiscated 3.32t of cocaine, or roughly 46.11% of the entire seizures during 2011 (7.2t). This could mean one of two things: 1) drug trafficking organisations are rapidly increasing their use of Costa Rica as a transit route; and/or 2) Costa Rican authorities are becoming increasingly more efficient at intercepting drug shipments.

According to Unimer, the future of the economy is becoming another issue of concern, with 17% of respondents putting it at the top of their list (up from 12% in June last). President Chinchilla has been struggling to get her fiscal reform package debated by congress, let alone approved, and according to the poll, her decision to strike a deal with Ottón Solís of the opposition Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC) has had a much more detrimental impact on the public’s perception of her leadership skills than on his (see sidebar).

• Poll

Source: Unimer poll of 1,200 Costa Ricans conducted between 4 and 10 January.