Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

The past week has provided further strong indications that, with US acquiescence, Israel is seriously preparing for a military strike against Iran if tightening international sanctions do not have a nearly immediate effect in curtailing Iran’s ambitions.  The pointers in the last week include:

                - On 2 February, in a rare public discourse, Israel’s military intelligence chief Major-General Aviv Kochavi spelt out the progress made by Iran in its nuclear programme.  Speaking at the annual Herzliya Conference on strategic affairs, he said: “Iran has accumulated more than four tonnes of uranium enriched to a level of 3.5% and nearly 100 kilos at an enrichment level of 20%”.  He added: “The amount of material is already enough for four atomic bombs.”  He also reiterated that once the political decision to make a nuclear weapon is taken it will take “about a year to complete the task” and another year or so to arm a missile with a nuclear warhead.  Kochavi said that it was “beyond doubt” that Iran was engaged in developing nuclear weapons.

                - Speaking at the closing session of the same conference, Israel’s Defence Minister Ehud Barak warned that the Iranian military nuclear project was approaching maturity “and is about to enter the immunity zone”, that is the point beyond which the Iranian regime would be able to complete the programme despite any outside attempts to prevent it.  He said that Iran reaching that point “may render any physical strike as impractical” – which by implication means that for the moment the defence minister considers a military strike to be a practical solution which could achieve the desired goal.  He then added that there was “a global understanding” that if sanctions do not succeed in stopping the Iranian military programme before that point then “an operation would have to be considered”.

                - Then there have been two important indicators from the US.  The first came from US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta who was quoted on 2 February by The Washington Post as saying that there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike before the end of June.  Panetta has not confirmed his reported remarks, but nor did he deny them.  The second indictor from the US also came in the form of a Washington Post report, this time quoting unnamed US officials as saying that Iran was stepping up its assistance to al-Qaeda despite ideological differences.  The 3 February report said: “US officials believe there have been recent indications [that] officials in the Iranian government have provided al-Qaeda operatives in Iran limited assistance, including logistical help, money and cars, according to a person briefed on developments.”  There could be few more effective ways of softening up American opinion for an attack against Iran than fingering Tehran for providing succour to al-Qaeda.

Meanwhile, back in Israel, the powerful arguments of those who doubt the efficacy of military action seem to be losing ground.  The point that Iran’s programme could soon enter a “zone of immunity”, in other words get beyond the point of no return, is trumping the doubters, particularly as Barak in his comments to the Herzliya Conference reiterated that he views a military strike as a feasible and practical option.

As to the outside world’s concerns about the economic and other consequences of a military confrontation with Iran, the prevailing Israeli view was neatly summed up by a commentator in Maariv on 3 February, who wrote: “In the global battle over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israel is fighting for dear life while the rest of the world is fighting for its standard of living.”

We are not saying that a war with Iran cannot be avoided, but it is significantly closer this week than it was last week – and there is no indication as yet that Iran is preparing to back down.  On the contrary, there have been plausible intelligence indicators that Tehran is preparing a covert strike against Israeli interests overseas in revenge for the assassination of four Iranian scientists since November 2010 by presumed Mossad assassins.  There have even been suggestions that Israel’s President Shimon Peres is being targeted for assassination ahead of the fourth anniversary on 12 February of the death of senior Hezbollah member Imad Mughniyeh.  Nothing would be more certain to spark an Israeli strike against Iran.