Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

In our briefing last week on China’s water policies we pointed out that even if China had some sympathy for Tibetan  aspirations (which it most certainly hasn’t), its overwhelming requirement to develop and control the water resources of the Tibetan plateau would preclude any compromise.  This past week has seen further evidence of China’s unrelenting approach to Tibet and Tibetan regions of China.

It is thought that the protests in the Tibetan regions of Sichuan province in the past month led to the deaths of up to seven Tibetans, with more than 60 wounded.  The protests followed a year in which more than 16 Tibetans set fire to themselves in protest against China’s policies towards the Dalai Lama and Tibetan independence.

To be fair to China, it is trying to enhance Tibetan material well-being.  The region has benefitted from double-digit economic growth for 18 straight years.  Last year, the region’s GDP increased by 12.6%, and in January it was announced that Tibet was the first Chinese region to extend the old-age pension to all senior citizens.  Expenditure on health services in 2012 will be increased by over 30%.

But judging by the continuing unrest none of this is having any significant effect on Tibetan aspirations, and China’s fear is that the eventual demise of the 76-year-old pacifist Dalai Lama, almost certainly in exile, could spark a wave of unrest that will only be contained with extreme brutality.

As a harbinger of what might be to come, the preparations for the fourth anniversary of the 14 March 2008 unrest in Lhasa, in which 19 people died, are worth noting.  The authorities have ordered a strict clampdown on unauthorized people entering the region from 1 March and a major campaign “to promote stability” within the monasteries has begun.

On 6 February, Hao Peng, secretary of the Commission for Political and Legal Affairs of the CCP Tibet Committee, issued an order to local officials to “boost security patrols, keep high alert, enhance personnel management, and tighten the control of society”. 

More ominously, the regional government issued a directive on 6 February saying that any officials who hesitated to enforce “stability-maintaining policies” would be dismissed.  The directive said: “Cadres and officials who walk away from their duties, chicken out of actions at crucial times, or who defy stability-maintaining policies shall be immediately removed from their posts pending punishment.”

Of course, the directive does beg the interesting question as to whether there have been incidents of officials refusing to impose harsh measures on Tibetan protesters.