Brazil & Southern Cone - February 2012 (ISSN 1741-4431)

October’s municipal elections in Chile are still some way away, but this year’s race has taken on added relevance, not only in light of last year’s lengthy student protests, which delivered a sharp shock to the local political scenario, but also because these elections will be the first since the introduction of new electoral reforms. The main political parties are preparing for the municipals well in advance, in recognition of the fact that the vote will set the tone for the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2013. As a result, there is already intense jockeying going in, as members of the ruling and the opposition coalitions seek to position themselves before the electorate.

In 2011 voting in Chile was made voluntary, while automatic voter registration was also introduced for the first time. Together, these reforms have the potential to dramatically transform Chile’s electorate and consequently the country’s political scene. For instance, an estimated 4.7m eligible voters will be added to the existing electoral roll of 8.12m. The national youth institute (Injuv) estimates that 60% of these new additions are aged between 18 and 29, the majority of which would have been involved in last year’s student protests. In one fell swoop, this age group will now represent over a quarter of the total electorate (27%), and so cannot be ignored. (Whether they all turn out to vote is another question).

Chile’s political parties know that the game is about to change and the upcoming municipals represent a useful testing ground. First of all, candidates will have to engage with the electorate more than ever, simply in order to get people out to vote. Moreover the municipals present an opportunity for the individual parties in the two dominant coalitions to differentiate themselves from each other and establish their own electoral bases, ahead of a potential reform of the binomial system, which favours a dual system and has ensured the endurance of the two big coalitions in Chile.

In the ruling right-of-centre Coalición para el Cambio, tensions between the main conservative Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI) and the more moderate Renovación Nacional (RN) have reached boiling point. Since coming to power in 2010, the RN has increasingly looked to distance itself from the UDI. Last month, on the second anniversary of President Sebastián Pinera’s second round election victory,  Senator Hernán Larraín of the UDI summed up the coalition’s time in government, admitting that “In truth it has been very hard for us to govern. Political coordination between the government, its parties and its parliamentarians has cost us more than anticipated”. The UDI and the RN have not been on the same page on most important political issues, but in particular electoral reform [RBS 12-1].

In mid January the RN, in conjunction with the opposition Democracia Cristiana (DC),  a moderate member of the left-of-centre Concertación opposition coalition, presented a proposal to reform the binomial electoral system.The UDI was incensed by its partner’s decision to go behind its back to talk to the opposition about a reform it staunchly opposes.

This unexpected move not only illustrated the level of discontent inside the ruling coalition; but also, it gave rise to the idea that Chile’s long static political dynamics are starting to change.

The upshot is that the mood in the ruling coalition is not the best, complicating discussions as to potential municipal candidates. In the last (2008) municipal elections, the distribution of candidates between the UDI and RN was almost equal, with the UDI taking 58 mayoralties and the RN 55. Another complicating factor is that the Coalición para el Cambio is waiting to see if some of its prominent mayors might opt to run for the senate (in 2013) instead, meaning that the coalition would have to come up with alternative nominees for these seats.

Meanwhile, over in the four-party Concertación, which currently runs 134 municipalities, the situation is not much better. The DC’s approximation with the RN has also created tensions in the Concertación, meaning that it has not been able to take advantage of the obvious weaknesses in the ruling coalition.

Indeed, the Concertación itself looks increasingly unstable. Moderate members like the DC and  Partido por la Democracia (PPD) are starting to feel uncomfortable about their alliance with the more radical Partido Socialista (PS) and the Partido Radical Social Demócrata (PRSD). In addition, unlike the Coalición para el Cambio, the Concertación decided last year that it would, for the first time, hold primaries in 2012 to select candidates for the majority (60%) of the races it intends to take part in. The decision was an attempt to show that the Concertación is more engaged with its electoral base and more open to renewal than its main rival.

However, there is a risk that the primary process, scheduled to take place on 1 April, will negatively affect those Concertación mayors seeking re-election, as they face into the prospect of protracted campaigns and the political wear-and-tear that this represents.  Inevitably, the primaries have fuelled the latent tensions between the four members, as they try to push their own candidates in the important races. The DC in particular has used the opportunity to challenge the Concertación’s main political leadership, and thereby set itself apart within the coalition.

The Concertación has identified 34 municipalities as “special cases” in which it will not hold primaries for various reasons. At least 12 of these are municipalities in which it is waiting to reach some sort of agreement with the Partido Comunista (PCCh). In the 2008 municipal elections, the Concertación and the PCCh agreed to a so-called “omission pact”, under which the Concertación tacitly backed PCCh candidates in municipalities in which it did not field a candidate, in order to avoid splitting the leftist vote. This time round, the PCCh has already identified the municipalities in which it intends to compete and has asked Concertación to “reserve” them. But the PCCh itself has since stalled the negotiations, as it examines whether the current political landscape provides it with an opportunity  to capitalise on the social discontent and the new electoral reforms to court young voters and increase its political clout independently.

Sensing an opportunity, the DC expressed its desire to field candidates in at least four of the 12 “reserved” municipalities. This prompted a strong reaction from the PCCh, whose secretary general, Lautaro Carmona, warned the Concertación on 7 February that the PCCh would be ready to field candidates “across the country” if it was not guaranteed the first option in its preferred municipalities. The Concertación countered that the fact that the DC had pencilled in names for these races did not make them definitive or mean that the ‘omission pact’ had been abandoned. However, the DC revealed that it was carrying out polls in the areas in question, in order to determine the viability of its candidates. It expects to have the results by the end of February, ahead of the resumption of the negotiations with the PCCh in March. While it may be a bit precipitate for the centrist RN and DC to consider their own separate electoral alliance ahead of this year’s municipals, the possibility of such an alliance in the not-so-distant future is now greater.

Emblematic races

A couple of high profile mayoral races are been identified by  political parties (and the media) as the ones that will determine the future state of Chile’s political landscape. First and foremost is the race for the capital, Santiago. The country’s most important municipality is currently run by the UDI's Pablo Zalaquett, who will almost certainly seek re-election. However, the PPD president, Carolina Tohá, and the DC’s vice-president, Laura Albornoz, have already registered as pre-candidates for the Concertación primaries. In Valparaíso, the internal struggle within the Concertación will pit Paula Quintana of the PS, a former planning minister (2008-2010) under Michelle Bachelet (2006-2010), against the DC’s Hernán Pinto, a former city mayor (1990-2000). This scenario will be played out again in La Florida, where the DC is fielding former mayor Gonzalo Duarte (1990-2000); and the PS is backing Vivienne Bachelet, Michelle Bachelet’s cousin, who is running as an independent but is backed by the PS.

For the Coalición para el Cambio, the municipality of Concepción presents a particularly difficult problem, given that former mayor Jacqueline van Rysselberghe (2000-2010) of the UDI, who resigned her post to become governor of Bibío following the 2010 earthquake, has declined to run for mayor again. Despite the fact that this represents a good opportunity to capture this important municipality, whose greater metropolitan area is second only to Santiago, no high profile Concertación candidate has stepped forth.

Meanwhile in Maipú, a decision by Mayor Alberto Undurraga (DC) not to seek re-election in order, to run for the senate in 2013, means that the Concertación does not have a strong candidate to represent it in one of the largest comunas in the metropolitan Santiago area. In another Santiago Metropolitan area municipality, Puente Alto, Mayor Manuel José Ossandón of the RN, who has been in office for the past 12 years, has also decided to compete for a seat in the senate next year, exposing an RN bastion. So far, the Concertación has failed to identify any candidates for that municipality.

• Confident Zalaquett

On 12 February Santiago’s Mayor Pablo Zalaquett stated that the prospect of facing a high profile Concertación candidate such as Carolina Tohá or Laura Albornoz didn’t faze him. “I have full faith in that whoever my rival is, I will continue being mayor. I came here for eight years and will stay eight years in Santiago” he quipped. Interestingly, Zalaquett also referred to the new “young” electorate and its potential to alter the elections. According to him, young people do not represent a “strong vote in Santiago... and if they did, it can be won it through work and dialogue”.