Caribbean & Central America - March 2012 (ISSN 1741-4458)

*** INCB 2011 DRUG REPORT. The latest International Narcotics Control Board annual report was issued on 28 February. In its analysis of regional developments, it noted that, while Central American countries have continued to gain in importance as trans-shipment areas, the Caribbean has become less important as a trans-shipment area for smuggling drugs into North America. According to the INCB, “that appears to be attributable to increased maritime control in Central America and the Caribbean”. However, it adds that Caribbean countries are “playing an increasing role as secondary distribution points for cocaine shipments destined for Europe”.

Of the Caribbean countries, Jamaica is singled out as having vulnerable borders which have allowed increasing infiltration by criminal networks “which use Jamaica as a transit country and a country of destination for smuggling drugs, firearms, ammunition, and migrants”. As a consequence, Jamaica’s importance as a “country of departure” for cocaine shipments has increased. In 2010, 1,217kg of cocaine was seized in Jamaica compared with only 44kg in 2009.

As far as consumption is concerned, cannabis remains the major problem. There are approximately 2.1m cannabis users in the Caribbean, and prevalence rates for cannabis abuse in 2011 range up to an astonishing 17.5% in Dominica. Among students, the average age of first-time abusers of cannabis in 12 Caribbean countries is 13 years.

*** TRINIDAD & TOBAGO ON GROWTH TRACK. Following the completion of its 2011 Article IV consultation on Trinidad & Tobago, the IMF has said that it expects the economy to grow by 1.7% in 2012 following a decline of 1.3% in 2011, no growth in 2010, and a significant decline in 2009. Unemployment is 5.8% and inflation 5.3%. The IMF has said that the near-term focus of fiscal policy needs to be on reviving economic activity. Downside risks include the global economic environment and uncertainty about gas prices.

*** TOURISM ARRIVALS UP. The Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) says that stay-over guests totalled 23.8m in 2011, an increase of 3.3% over 2010. Cruise passenger arrivals were largely stagnant at 20.6m (up just 0.3%). As regards country of origin, Canadian arrivals were 6.8% up over 2010, US arrivals up 1.7%, and arrivals from Europe up just 0.6%. As for 2012, the CTO says: “Arrivals to the Caribbean are not expected to exceed a 3% increase in 2012, and visitor expenditure is also not expected to grow meaningfully during this year.”

*** CONSTITUTIONAL RUMBLINGS IN GUYANA. Guyana’s People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) won re-election in November, but it lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 19 years. As the majority party it chose the president – Donald Ramotar. The final count was 32 seats for the PPP/C, 26 for A Partnership for National Unity (APNU), and seven seats for the Alliance for Change (AFC). The PPP/C’s chief whip Gail Teixeira is now complaining that the APNU and the AFC have been combining in parliament to disregard basic conventions “saying all the time that they are a majority and trying to put the government out of government”. Teixeira has warned that opposition behaviour is taking Guyana’s parliament into “uncharted waters”.

*** BELIZE GOES TO THE POLLS ON 7 MARCH. The ruling United Democratic Party (UDP) led by Prime Minister Dean Barrow won the February 2008 election with a landslide, taking 25 seats against the six held by the ousted People’s United Party (PUP). The last election was about corruption and abuse of power; this one is more about economic issues, and although the economy grew by an estimated 2.9% in 2011, the government is struggling to meet popular expectations. Nevertheless, the feeling on the eve of the polls is that the PUP under its new leader Francis Fonseca has not entirely shaken off old habits and is not yet deserving of a return to power.