Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Putin rejects Gorbachev-style liberalism.  Following Vladimir Putin’s victory in the Russian presidential election, his press secretary Dmitriy Peskov told Kommersant-FM radio on 4 March: “There will be no revolutions, let alone Gorbachev-style bouts of liberalism”.  However, he added: “At the same time, he [Putin] said on many occasions that he was a committed proponent of progressive development and progressive forward movement...It is this very forward movement that we are going to see.  And this forward movement has the modernization of both the political system and the economy as its components.”  Peskov admitted that the political system “has to catch up a little bit with the level of our civil society, which is more mature and wants more active participation in politics...the political system has to be adapted more to these conditions...”

*** Strong welcome from China to Putin’s election.  China’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi welcomed Vladimir Putin’s election as Russia’s next president by saying that this would enhance bilateral cooperation and coordination in regional and international affairs.

The official Chinese news agency Xinhua added a cautious note when it said in a 5 March commentary: “As a pragmatic helmsman, Putin cannot be expected to steer the Russian ship of state too close or too far from the American one.”  However, it added with satisfaction: “He has outlined in his campaign manifesto that Russia needs a prosperous and stable China...it is thus predictable that Russia-China relations, which have been evolving healthily for years, will further develop steadily.”

Interestingly, the Xinhua commentary saw Putin’s nostalgia for the Soviet era as a positive, saying: “Putin’s nostalgia for the old and powerful Soviet era, which can be seen through his aspiration to coordinate and orchestrate once again the alliance of the Commonwealth of Independent States, also brings him closer to his Chinese friend.”

*** China’s ageing population.  The number of Chinese aged 60 or above has topped 185m, or 13.7% of the population.  This is 4% higher than the 177.6m recorded in this bracket at the end of 2010.  Li Liguo, the director of the office of the China National Committee on Ageing, says that by the end of 2015 there will be a further 43m increase in the over-60s, bringing the total to 221m.  Of these, 24m will be aged 80 or above.

*** Libya’s Barqa province fears.  The declaration by tribal leaders and politicians on 6 March of the eastern Libyan province of Barqa as a semi-autonomous federal province has fed Arab fears that it could become a virtually independent state like Iraqi Kurdistan.  Barqa is Libya’s richest province and would leave Tripoli in the west and Fazzan in the east relatively impoverished.