Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

In last week’s issue, we looked at the US’s relations with China, and in particular at seemingly conciliatory remarks made by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to mark the 40th anniversary of President Richard Nixon’s historic 1972 visit to China.  We provided evidence to support the view that not too much should be read into the diplomatic protestations of US support for China’s rise and that the reality continued to be one of concern and rivalry.  No such forensic interpretation is required to decipher Japan’s level of concern over China’s rise.  It is doing nothing to hide it.

The latest open acknowledgement of Japan’s fears over China’s rise came in a speech on Sunday by Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to a graduation ceremony of Self-Defence Forces cadets in Yokosuka.  Speaking on 18 March, Noda warned about North Korea’s nuclear threat and then added that “moves by...China, which is reinforcing its military capabilities and continuing vigorous activities in surrounding waters, are growing increasingly severe”.  He said that he felt “even more keenly” the bond of the Japan-US alliance and he urged cadets “to support from your fields the efforts to deepen and develop this relationship”.

Just two days earlier, on 16 March, China’s foreign ministry had issued a statement describing its naval patrols near the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu in Chinese) as “lawful”.  Spokesman Liu Weimin said: “Our law enforcement vessels patrolled waters close to the Diaoyu Islands to maintain normal order and safeguard China’s maritime rights and interests.”  On the same day, China’s State Oceanic Administration (SOA) said that two of its surveillance ships had arrived in the area that morning to conduct an inspection tour.

Japan responded immediately by summoning China’s ambassador to protest against what it called the “extremely serious” incursion into Senkaku waters. The foreign ministry said that the Chinese vessels had entered territorial waters despite “repeated warnings” from the Japanese coastguard in what is the first incursion into Senkaku waters by Chinese state vessels since August last year.  In 2010, a clash between a Chinese fishing boat and Japanese coastguard vessel in the area sparked the worst dispute between Beijing and Tokyo in years.

Meanwhile, in the South China Sea, on 19 March a Chinese maritime official said that a China Maritime Surveillance (CMS) patrol team had just finished its third mission “targeted at the illegal exploration of oil and gas”.  The CMS said that the patrol had searched for “illegal offshore oil and gas extraction platforms” and that it had discovered 30 in total.  On 16 March, China had warned the Philippines against unilateral oil and gas exploration in the disputed Spratly Islands.  The Philippines, for its part, has said that oil and gas exploration near the Reed Bank is non-negotiable.

Also on 19 March, South Korea announced that it had deployed additional aircraft to patrol waters around Ieo Island after China claimed the submerged rock was under its control.  Ieo is 149km off Korea’s southern coast and considered to be part of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ).