Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Lavrov’s selective logic.  On 20 March, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov used a famous quote from Germany’s historic ‘Iron Chancellor’ Otto von Bismarck to justify continued Russian opposition to the US’s missile-defence plans in Europe.  Having conceded that Nato has no intention of attacking Russia, he quoted Bismarck as saying: “In military affairs, the most important thing is not intentions but capabilities.” On the very same day, however, he argued against Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities on the grounds that he is “absolutely convinced” that Iran would never use nuclear weapons against Israel.  He argued that Iran’s “foreign political rhetoric” is aimed “at achieving domestic aims and aims in the Islamic world” and its threats to destroy Israel should not be taken seriously.  Israel is more likely to heed Bismarck’s advice – it’s the capabilities, not the intentions, of a potential adversary that must dictate a nation’s actions.

*** Indonesian coup warning.  On 18 March, Indonesia’s President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) issued an opaque warning about a possible coup when speaking to activists of the Democratic Party.  He said: “There is another weird movement that essentially believes that the SBY government must be brought down before 2014 on the basis of fabricated reasons.  It is a group that is unwilling to struggle on the democratic path, for instance, through a political party.  There is a group that does not want to make every effort and move in the constitutional corridor; it just wants the presidency and the vice-presidency...Currently I am the target.  There are quite many who pray for me, but there are also quite many who threaten my security to overthrow me during my term.”

*** Stark warning from WHO.  The director-general of the World Health Organization, Dr Margaret Chan, has issued the starkest warning yet about antimicrobial resistance.  Speaking in Denmark on 14 March, she said that for patients infected with some drug-resistant pathogens, mortality has been shown to increase by around 50%.  In practical terms, this means that of the 650,000 people who have contracted multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (out of a total of 12m TB cases worldwide), “even with the best of care” only slightly more than 50% will be cured.

Chan added: “If current trends continue unabated, the future is easy to predict.  Some experts say we are moving back to the pre-antibiotic era...In terms of new replacement antibiotics, the pipeline is virtually dry...Prospects for turning this situation around look dim...A post-antibiotic era means, in effect, an end to modern medicine as we know it.  Things as common as strep throat or a child’s scratched knee could once again kill.  Some sophisticated interventions, like hip replacements, organ transplants, cancer chemotherapy, and care of preterm infants, would become far more difficult or even too dangerous to undertake.”