Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

It goes without saying that Russia is opposed to military action against Iran in an attempt to stop its presumed intention of developing nuclear weapons.  In this Moscow is not all that far from the Western powers, except that they do not wish to rule out military action as a last resort.  But Russia is also extremely dismissive of sanctions, which is the only other means by which the Western powers are trying to force Iran into the necessary concessions to prevent an Israeli military attack.

In remarks reported on 3 April, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov was scathing about sanctions, saying that the US and European Union regarded them like some form of “amulet or talisman”.  He pointed out that “years are going by and the Iranian side is not making any concessions under the strengthening pressure of sanctions”.  Yet, Ryabkov added, “only one conclusion is being drawn from this, namely that one simply needs to step up the pressure of sanctions...”  He described this as “complete surrealism”.

Ryabkov’s solution is “serious talks” with Iran, but he doesn’t elaborate on what concessions should (or could) be given to Iran in order to secure its full compliance with its nuclear non-proliferation treaty obligations.  He just reiterates that “no one will be able to obtain concessions from the Iranian side through a policy of threats”.

Away from Iran, Ryabokov has also widened Russia’s opposition to Nato’s missile-defence plans, saying on 2 April that while Russia’s attention has so far been focused on the European area, it is also concerned about similar plans for the Far East, the Persian Gulf, and the Middle East as a whole.  He said: “The problem is very serious, and our concerns are only exacerbated when we see the confirmation that it is all being integrated, that a common global network is being set up, extremely mobile, with a large number of sensors, with a large number of facilities to monitor launches from space.  So in a few years we are going to have a totally different configuration in the sphere of missile defence.”

In our main briefing of 8 February (Russia: friend or foe?) we noted that virtually every challenge faced by the Western powers could be improved by better relations with Moscow, including enabling the US to rebalance its security focus towards Asia and helping to curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions before it is too late.  Russia also has the capability to help mitigate the consequences of a return to power of the Taleban in Afghanistan and could play a role in mitigating the Muslim Brotherhood ascendancy in the Middle East.  And clearly, as we have reported in this week’s main briefing, Japan sees Russia as a key asset in the struggle against China’s rise.  Yet, for whatever reason, progress with Russia seems to be impossible to achieve, and although Japan appears to be trying again, the form book is not encouraging.