Caribbean & Central America - May 2012 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Nicaragua’s legislature has finally begun the process of electing top officials who, despite the expiry of their mandates, have remained in their posts due to a decree issued by President Daniel Ortega in January 2010 [RC-10-01].  Long a demand of civil society groups and the opposition, the move represents a step towards restoring credibility to the country’s institutions. It did, however, coincide with two new initiatives unveiled by Ortega, which are likely to take effect ahead of the 4 November 2012 municipal vote – one introducing new electoral rules and the other changing the structure of local government. The latter in particular has triggered fresh concerns that Ortega is seeking to strengthen his grip at the local level.

Congress’s leader and deputy for the ruling Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN), René Núñez, announced that on 17 April the legislature officially called the election for 23 top public officials whose terms had run out. The January 2010 decree enabling the officials to remain in their positions was widely seen as an attempt by Ortega at circumventing the 92-seat unicameral legislature, which is constitutionally mandated to make the appointments. At the time he lacked a majority – and the necessary support to approve his choices - although this situation has now changed as a result of the November 2011 general election, which saw the FSLN win 62 seats. Up for election are: four supreme justice court (CSJ) magistrates and 16 associate CSJ judges; the banking superintendent; and the attorney general and assistant attorney general. Under the constitution (Art. 138), once the election has been called, the President and deputies have 15 days to submit their choices of candidates to a special seven-member legislative committee, which will interview them. The list then goes to congress, where a minimum of 56 votes is necessary for approval.

While the move was hailed as a step forward, it is worth noting that some officials continue in their posts beyond their legal mandates - notably the head of the supreme electoral court (CSE), Roberto Rivas. A close Ortega ally, Rivas’s behaviour during last November’s elections attracted considerable criticism from the European Union (EU)’s and the Organization of American States (OAS)’s electoral observer delegations. His continuance in the post is likely to generate concerns given the upcoming municipal vote.

Just over a week after the legislature announced the start of the appointment process to pick the new officials, Ortega revealed he had sent initiatives to congress – where his majority should ensure a smooth passage – that will likely take effect ahead of the municipal vote. One proposal, an electoral reform bill, is being spun by the government as an attempt to address the concerns raised by the international community and local civil society groups in relation to the last election. Among the few details revealed, it includes provisions for improving the system for issuing cédulas (national identity cards) and ensuring the representation in voting centres of electoral officials from all parties – both issues attracted major complaints during the last electoral process. The other – a proposal to triple the number of local councillors - has attracted particular concern. Citing the need to boost “direct democracy”, the first lady and official government spokesperson, Rosario Murillo, explained that the initiative increases the number of councillors from the current 2,178 to 6,534 across the country’s 153 municipalities. The allusion to “direct democracy”, however, set off alarm bells among civil society groups: it was the justification for the establishment of the citizen power councils (CPCs), the flagship project of Ortega’s previous administration (2007-2012). With the CPCs having become an extension of the executive in November 2007 by presidential decree, civil society groups have long complained that they serve as little more than a continuation of the FSLN party structure. With local experts questioning the technical basis for increasing the size of local government and warning that it could lead to confusion ahead of the next vote, on a practical level, local councillors have raised concerns over the lack of additional funds assigned to account for the changes, warning that this would mean cuts in other areas, such as social spending.

Ortega remains popular

A survey last month by Nicaraguan pollster M&R Consultores (M&R), published in the national daily El Nuevo Diario, shows that, despite the doubts over the legitimacy of Ortega’s new government, given the illegal nature of his candidacy and allegations of electoral fraud, his popularity continues to rise. This has been attributed to the continued improvement of the economy (which grew 4.7% in 2011, second only to Panama in the region); the continued fragmentation of the opposition; and the government’s relative ability to keep a lid on insecurity (see backpage).

According to the poll, which interviewed 1,600 people nationwide, 67% of respondents believe that the country is heading in the right direction; 63.4% perceive Ortega to be “democratic” and upholding the rule of law; while 68.6% believe Nicaragua is better off today than in 2007, when his FSLN took office.

The M&R survey also showed the continued lack of confidence in the opposition, which ultimately was neither able to challenge Ortega’s candidacy nor further its complaints of electoral fraud. According to the poll, 64.7% of respondents do not consider the political opposition as an “option or hope for democracy in Nicaragua”. Just 9.1% aligned themselves with the opposition, of which 4.8% named the Partido Liberal Independiente (PLI), which took 31% of the vote in the November general election, and 3.9% the Partido Liberal Constitucionalista (PLC) of former President Arnoldo Alemán (1997-2002), which won 5.9% of the vote. Meanwhile, 49.7% of respondents cited a preference for the FSLN. While this is less than the 62% that saw Ortega re-elected, it is more than the third of the population that traditionally forms the core Sandinista vote.

• 50-50 law

In March, Nicaragua’s legislature passed ‘Ley 40’ – the so-called 50-50 law - which establishes that lists of local government candidates must include an equal number of men and women. That such rules are necessary is suggested by the fact that just 7% of Nicaragua’s mayors are female (below the 10% average for Latin America). This rises to 24% in the case of councillors, higher than the 22% regional average. Yet the move was questioned by local NGOs working on democracy and women’s groups. The former warned that the rules remain vague and could cause confusion ahead of the November municipal vote. The latter remain deeply suspicious of Ortega’s gestures toward gender equity given his refusal to repeal the 2006 blanket ban on abortion – which he was instrumental in getting approved.