Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

There is no sign of any resolution to the stand-off between China and the Philippines over their territorial dispute in the South China Sea.  On Saturday (28 April) the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs said two Philippines’ Coast Guard vessels guarding the Scarborough Shoal - known in China as Huangyan island - were "bullied" by a Chinese fishery patrol ship earlier in the day.

The present escalation began on 8 April when eight Chinese fishing vessels anchored inside the shoal.  This prompted Manila to send a naval warship to the area, and on 10 April the Chinese boats were boarded and inspected.  China responded by sending surveillance ships to support the fishermen, and these placed themselves between the Chinese boats and the Philippines’ naval vessel.

Philippines’ President Benigno Aquino has tried to play down the stand-off by reiterating his view that China will not escalate the dispute to a military conflict.  He said: “We don’t think that at this point in time they will engage in any military activities, and our actions have been geared towards de-escalating this situation.”  He added: “There is [an] overriding instruction not to escalate the situation, not to put each other in a position that would...add more tension to the situation in the area.”

That may be so, but China is certainly in no mood for compromise.  On 29 April, Beijing furiously rejected a Philippines proposal to put the dispute to arbitration by the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea.  The senior Philippines’ diplomat in Beijing was summoned to the Chinese foreign ministry’s Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs to receive a “grave” protest from the department’s head, Deng Zhonghua.  The Philippines’ diplomat was told: "Huangyan island has been an integral part of China's territory since ancient times.  There is no legal ground to call for arbitration by an international agency."

China is also continuing to send fishing boats to the disputed area, which is within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ).  At present there are six Chinese fishing vessels anchored in a lagoon in Scarborough Shoal.  And on Saturday a Chinese Fisheries Law Enforcement Command (FLEC) vessel tried to run off two Philippines’ Coast Guard vessels in the “bullying” incident referred to above.

This prompted Armed Forces Northern Luzon Command chief Lt Gen Anthony Alcantara to warn: "Our Armed Forces, especially our Philippine Navy, is backing up our Coast Guard and is ready for contingency.”

A Senate hearing on 29 April was also warned by an expert legal witness that the presence of Chinese naval vessels in the disputed area could be taken as “the threat to use force” under the terms of the UN Charter.  The Senate was told: “It’s important to consider the threat of force on the part of China...because it is at the same time an attempt to settle the dispute not in a peaceful manner.”

And in another move certain to rile China, Energy Undersecretary Jose Layug said the Philippines is planning more oil and gas exploration in the disputed area despite China's objections and increasing belligerence.

NOTE: The passage of three Chinese Navy vessels through Japan’s Osumi Strait off Kagoshima Prefecture, southwestern Japan, on 30 April was described as “routine and non-threatening” by China's National Defence Ministry.  It  said the exercises in the western Pacific "are in line with annual plans" of the military and "not targeted at any specific country or objective".  However, it is the first time that a Chinese naval vessel has travelled through the strait for nine years.