Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Dagan reveals Israeli hopes on Egypt.  Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan has been much quoted for his opposition to a military strike against Iran, but it is his comments on Egypt that caught our attention this week.  In comments reported on 27 April, Dagan said that it was premature for Israel to get too fearful about Egypt as “things there have yet to ripen”.  He said: “You have to remember that the army still hasn’t decided what it is going to do.  Ultimately, let there be no mistake, the real power in Egypt is not in the hands of parliament but in the hands of the president, and the military council hasn’t decided what course of action to take.  We have to wait and see.  I’m not a prophet, but there’s no reason to just predict doom and gloom.”

*** Strategy change in Jordan.  The resignation on 26 April of Jordan’s Prime Minister Awn al-Khasawinah and his replacement by Fayez Tarawneh was presented as a move to speed reform.  Tarawneh is said to be a liberal.  Khasawneh had in turn replaced Marouf Bakhit, a former army general who had been slow to respond to the events of the Arab Awakening that has led to the fall of leaders in Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia, and Libya.

However, it isn’t quite that simple.  King Abdullah's criticism of al-Khasawneh is said to have been based on disagreement over proposed changes to the electoral law that currently favours the king's traditional Bedouin supporters.  Al-Khasawneh was working on a bill to even out the representation, but his proposed changes were opposed by the security services and conservative tribal elders.

One local political activist responded to the move by saying that the government “is not concerned with political reform, the Muslim Brotherhood, the popular activities, the citizenship, the Jordanians of Palestinian origin, the state of law and institutions, or the civil society”.  He added that the government is trying “to restore the traditional alliances with Israel, the United States, Europe, and Saudi Arabia at the regional and international levels, and with the classical structure of the old guard in society and the conservative elite at the domestic level”.

*** Europol warns on lone terror actors.  In its Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 2012, Europol warns about the radicalization of lone extremists as a key ongoing concern at a time when overall the number of terrorist attacks in the European Union is decreasing.  In 2011, there were 174 terrorist attacks in EU member states, with 484 individuals arrested for terrorist-related offences.  The director of Europol, Rob Wainwright, said: “Radicalization into violent extremism and lone-wolf attacks represents a significant threat for European citizens and have led to many tragedies, such as in Norway.”  In fact only two EU citizens were killed by a lone-wolf attack in 2011, in Germany.  Norway, where 77 people were killed by deranged loner Anders Breivik, is outside the EU.