Courcy's Special Alerts

In our just-published 9 May issue of Courcy’s Intelligence Brief we looked at how the Philippines, Japan, and others are reacting to China’s unbending approach to sovereignty claims in the South China Sea.  There have been further worrying developments in the dispute between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Reef (called Huangyan Island by China) in the past 24 hours.

The dispute is a complex one, and the best assessment of the claims comes from Durham University’s excellent International Boundaries Research Unit.  Its detailed analysis of the Scarborough Reef dispute can be accessed via this link.

The IBRU notes that some experts believe the Chinese claim is the better one, but it goes on to say: “Neither claim is perfect and both are subject to challenge.  Furthermore, the United Nations Charter obligates UN member states to resolve their territorial disputes by peaceful means, which include, inter alia, negotiation, investigation, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, and use of regional organs and  means.  The LOS [Law of the Sea] Convention also has similar provisions on treaty obligations to settle any maritime dispute by peaceful means.  Thus it is universally accepted that peaceful settlement of international disputes is one of the fundamental principles in international law.  Since China and the Philippines are both UN members as well as signatories of the LOS Convention, they are obliged to resolve any dispute between them in a peaceful way.”

However, on 29 April, Beijing furiously rejected a Philippines proposal to put the dispute to arbitration by the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea.  The senior Philippines’ diplomat in Beijing was summoned to the Chinese foreign ministry’s Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs to receive a “grave” protest from the department’s head, Deng Zhonghua.  The Philippines’ diplomat was told: "Huangyan island has been an integral part of China's territory since ancient times.  There is no legal ground to call for arbitration by an international agency."

Now, in the latest escalation, on 10 May China’s official military newspaper, the PLA Daily, published a commentary under the title “Don’t Attempt to Take Away Half an Inch of China’s Territory” in which it warned: “Anyone’s attempt to take away China’s sovereignty over Huangyan Island will not be allowed by the Chinese government, people, and armed forces.”  The article went on to warn against mistaking “China’s kindness for weakness”, and, perhaps ominously, it added: “It is quite likely the Philippine side will drink as it brewed”.

On 9 May, it was announced that Chinese travel agencies had suspended travel to the Philippines in response to the escalation.  Also on 9 May, in a possibly unrelated incident it was announced that China’s office of Quality Supervision, Inspection, and Quarantine had intensified quarantine of fruit imports from the Philippines “after harmful organisms were found in several shipments”.

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