Brazil & Southern Cone - May 2012 (ISSN 1741-4431)

President Sebastián Piñera has only just passed the halfway point in his four year term but attention in Chile is already turning towards the next presidential election (due in late 2013), amid widespread disappointment with the country’s first centre-right administration since the return to democracy in 1990. Taking note of this, Chile’s Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP), a respected think-tank, decided to bring forward publication of its latest public opinion omnibus to 10 May. The CEP found that in contrast to the government’s own expectations, public perceptions of its performance remain very negative. The survey paints a bleak picture for the ruling Coalición para el Cambio.

The CEP poll, taken twice a year, is the country’s most respected. The last edition came out in December 2011 and the next was only scheduled for release in June or July. However, in recognition of the fact that Chile is undergoing important political and socio economic changes, the CEP decided to put out its poll early. In the December 2011 poll, the Piñera administration had a 23% approval rating, the worst rating of any government in at least two decades and far lower than any of its left-wing Concertación coalition predecessors. In the latest poll, the government’s approval rating up a notch at 24%; while its disapproval rating was down three percentage points to 59%, from 62% previously. However given the error margin of three percentage points, the results are basically stable. The fact that the ratings finally appear to be moving in the right direction was of little solace to the government. The Piñera team had expected far better results, particularly after it managed to deal with several serious challenges including student protests and civic unrest in Southern Chile (with varying degrees of success) since the last poll.

Back in December, the government’s low approval ratings were attributed mainly to the highly damaging student protests. Students spent at least six months on the streets last year demanding that the government make sweeping changes to the country’s education system. Since then, the government has been able to establish talks with the students and reach partial agreements with other protestors around the country. Thus in government circles there was an expectation that its approval rating would go up by around three percentage points. Indeed, government representatives held a meeting with leading members of the two coalition parties, Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI) and Renovación Nacional (RN), ahead of the CEP poll to present this view and transmit ‘calm’ to the coalition. However it appears that the government badly underestimated the level of disenchantment amongst general population, which is voiced in a popular sentiment that Chile, for all its economic stability, is going in the wrong direction.

Looking in detail at the CEP, the electorate is unhappy with the government’s handling of a number of issues. At the top, predictably, is education, which was cited by 46% of respondents as the biggest problem facing the country and the government. This was followed by crime (45%) and healthcare (42%). Significantly, the students have lately renewed mass demonstrations, in protest at the government’s inability to address their demands, leaving the government open to fresh criticism.

Harder to explain is the negative sentiment surrounding the government’s stewardship of the economy. Despite the fact that Chile has posted consistent and higher than expected growth figures since the crippling 2010 earthquake and tsunami, only 24% of respondents approved of the government’s economic management, while a full 58% disapproved of it. Indeed, 34% of respondents felt that Chile’s current economic situation was ‘very bad’; while only 21% thought it was ‘very good’.

Surprisingly, 31% identified low wages as the fourth most important issue in the country (after education, crime and healthcare). In the previous poll, 25% identified low wages as a key problem and so the jump is significant. Yet President Piñera has repeated time and again that his government has not only successfully guided Chile through the global economic crisis but has also helped the country achieve record levels of employment. The official unemployment rate is just 6.6%, which has led to increases in real wages.

These negative perceptions about the economy were largely unexpected. The presidential spokesman, Andrés Chadwick, admitted that the executive would like to have more public “support” for its policies, but he added that “there is no frustration or wavering, on the contrary: there is strength, motivation and drive…if Chile is asking for more, we are going to do everything possible to move forward”. Similarly President Piñera highlighted the resilience of Chile’s economy in the face of the adverse global economic climate and called on Chileans to give themselves a pat on the back for a job well done. “Just as they [the public] have the capacity to pinpoint our problems, I want to ask them to also have the capacity to value what we are building together”.

Political evaluations

Coalition politicians are concerned with CEP poll results, which also public perceptions of individual political figures and parties. The UDI and the RN fear the government’s negative ratings will damage them ahead of this year’s municipal elections and, more importantly, next year’s presidential elections. In December 2011, 55% disapproved of the coalition’s performance; in the latest results this dropped to 52%. However, the coalition’s approval rating also dipped two percentage points to just 18%. This may not make for positive reading for the Coalición para el Cambio but it will take some comfort in the fact that the opposition Concertación fares even worse, with a 50% disapproval rating and an approval rating of only 14%. All in all, the two should face into the municipals on an equally weak footing.

However, when it comes to voter preferences ahead of next year’s presidential elections, the picture alters dramatically. For the first time the CEP asked respondents an open ended questions as to whom they would like as their next president. Just over half (51%) opted for the former president Michelle Bachelet (2006-2010). Although she left office two years ago and is now working at the United Nations (UN), Bachelet remains by far Chile’s most popular politician. According to the CEP, 83% of Chileans have a positive evaluation of her, while just 6% view her negatively. To put this into context, the second most popular politician in the country according to the CEP is the independent public works minister, Laurence Golborne, who has a 68% approval rating and an 11% disapproval rating. However only 7% said they would like to see Golborne become the next president. Another 7% said ‘no one’. Other politicians, including Piñera himself, were mentioned by 2% or less of respondents.

If the Concertación can convince Bachelet to return to Chile to bid for another term (and that is by no means a certainty) then the prospects for the Coalición para el Cambio, which has no obvious presidential candidate for 2013, are rum indeed.

The 2010 tsunami case may yet drown Bachelet’s reputation

On 7 May Solange Huerta, a prosecutor from Santiago’s VII court of guarantees, formally began an investigation into whether government officials including the former deputy interior minister, Patricio Rosende, and the former director of Chile’s national emergency office (Onemi), Carmen Fernández, had any responsibility in the deaths of 156 people as a result of the tsunami that followed the devastating 27 February 2010 earthquake in Chile.

The investigation centres around the fact that the authorities failed to alarm the population about the impeding tsunami. Huerta’s initial investigations have discovered a “complete lack of coordination between Onemi and the navy’s hydro-graphic and oceanographic service [Shoa]”, as Shoa issued a tsunami alert which Onemi then failed to communicate to the general public. As a result, Huerta has charged both Rosende and Fernández, concluding that this lack of coordination caused deaths that could have been avoided.

The current Piñera government, which took office shortly after the disaster, is highly critical of the previous Bachelet administration’s handling of the incident. It maintains that other former officials, including Bachelet herself, may also have to answer to the case. The opposition Concertación has accused the ruling Coalición por el Cambio of seeking to politicise the investigation by going after Bachelet in a deliberate attempt to tarnish her reputation. However others including the legal team for the victims’ also maintain that Bachelet should testify before the court, noting that as president Bachelet was responsible for making sure that the nation’s institutions were operating efficiently. At the time of the emergency, Bachelet herself was not made aware of the possibility that the earthquake could be followed up by tsunami until two hours after the original quake, by which time, arguably, it was too late. On that basis Huerta has to date rejected calls to call upon Bachelet, on the grounds that the president was not given any information about what was going on”. Huerta has also pointed out that under Chile’s emergency alert system; all decisions are made by the interior ministry. That day, Huerta has said, Bachelet “was reduced to acting as the government’s spokesperson”. End box

• Weak

In perhaps the most damming CEP poll finding, a full 70% said that the government led by President Sebastián Piñera had shown little ability or dexterity in dealing with social pressures. The same proportion (69%) agreed that the government has appeared ‘weak’ in the face of these pressures. These findings will not escape the Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI), the senior partner in the ruling coalition, which has consistently called on the government to adopt a tougher stance towards social conflicts.

• Insulza defends Bachelet

The Chilean secretary general of the Organization of American States (OAS), José Miguel Insulza, said on 13 May that in his opinion a president “exercises his post through his ministers and officials” and that adjudicating the full responsibility on President Bachelet [for the 2010 earthquake] “does not follow”. Insulza also said that the people working at the national emergency office (Onemi) that day acted under immense pressure and in his view did their best to deal with the catastrophe. “I know the people that worked at Onemi. Many of them worked with me when I was interior minister and I think that they did the best they could” Insulza declared.