Caribbean & Central America - July 2012 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Panama’s main opposition parties, Partido Panameñista (PPA) and Partido Revolucionario Democrático (PRD), appear to have put their historic differences aside for the time being. Along with the smaller Partido Popular (PP), the three parties launched a new alliance in June, named the Frente por la Democracia, against the ruling Cambio Democrático (CD) of President Ricardo Martinelli and his perceived anti-democratic tendencies.

The leaders of the PPA, PRD and PP - Vice-President Juan Carlos Varela, Mitchell Doens and Milton Henríquez respectively - unveiled the new Frente on 15 June. The show of unity is the latest attempt by the opposition to challenge Martinelli, efforts that have gathered pace since the CD-PPA ruling alliance came unstuck in August last [RC-11-10]. Civil society groups ranging from the Alianza Ciudadana Pro Justicia to private sector organisations such as the chamber of trade, industry and agriculture (CCIAP) have since backed the Frente.

The alliance was triggered by two different Martinelli-backed proposals. One was his appointment of justices to a new three-member chamber in the nine-member supreme court of justice (CSJ). He had floated this idea at the start of the year, but abandoned it under popular pressure amid suspicion that he was seeking to overturn the constitutional ban on consecutive presidential re-election and thereby run in 2014 [RC-12-02]. The other controversial initiative was proposed legislation allowing the State to sell 24% of its remaining 49% stake in the former state-owned telecoms company, Intel, now known as Cable & Wireless Panama, as well as reforms to a February 1997 law regulating the energy sector, which would enable the government to sell its remaining shares in joint ventures. Both the energy and telecoms sectors were partly privatised under the Ernesto Pérez Balladares government (PRD, 1994-1999). The opposition claimed that Martinelli’s motives for selling the government’s share were based on generating funds ahead of the 2014 election.

Less than a week since its launch, the alliance had a tangible result. After protests in Panama City organised by the new Frente spilled over into congress, resulting in 47 people arrested and a scuffle that took place between CD and opposition deputies on 18 June, forcing the suspension of the session, two days later Martinelli announced that he was backing down. He has since signed a resolution leaving without effect the designation of three justices and said that the proposed reforms to the energy and telecoms sectors would be subject to dialogue between the different stakeholders. While the new Frente might hail his U-turn as its first victory, Martinelli’s record of flip-flopping on contentious initiatives – most recently, his pledge not to open up the mining sector [RC-12-03] - suggests his critics are unlikely to remain complacent.

Yet while Martinelli’s disapproval rating remains at an all-time high (see sidebar), he is unlikely to lose much sleep in the immediate future. First, he controls the 71-member unicameral legislature, with 36 seats for his CD along with four belonging to an ally, Molirena. This compares with a total of 30 for the new alliance (17 for the PRD, 12 for the PPA and one for the PP). The strong performance of the economy, which Economy & Finance Minister Frank De Lima recently forecast would grow 10% this year, approaching the 10.6% registered in 2011 – the highest in the region - also bodes well for Martinelli. Similarly, while the launch of the Frente was endorsed by figures such as ex president Martín Torrijos (PRD, 2004-2009), it caused divisions within the PPA, raising doubts as to its durability – particularly given that manoeuvring within both parties ahead of the 2014 vote has already begun and the chance of an electoral agreement between the historic rivals is slim. While the ex president and PPA member Mireya Moscoso (1999-2004) declared her surprise at the pact, José Miguel Alemán, a former PPA presidential candidate (2004), outright rejected it, complaining that the PRD had not “apologised for its dictatorial past”.

• Record disapproval

According to a Unimer survey published at the end of May in the opposition daily Prensa, 55.5% of respondents rated Martinelli’s performance as “bad” or “very bad” – the first time that a majority disapproved of his leadership since he took office in July 2009. This has been attributed in part to the recent bribery allegations that emerged upon the arrest in April of Valter Lavitola, an unofficial aide to former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi [RC-12-05]. In October 2009, three months after Martinelli took office, 13.2% of Unimer poll respondents rated his performance unfavourably, increasing to 28.8% in March 2011 and 48.6% in January 2012. In the latest poll, which interviewed 1,209 people on 17-20 May, just 43.2% rated his performance as ‘good’ or ‘very good’.