Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

South Korea and the US began their annual Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) joint military exercise on 20 August against the usual background of North Korean allegations that the exercise is a practice for an invasion of the North.  The interesting point this time around is that the intensity of the protests has been stepped up under the new leadership of Kim Jong-un.

In a visit to North Korea’s westernmost island a few days before the start of UFG, Kim Jong-un told soldiers that North Korea would turn the West Sea “into a graveyard of the invaders” if the South were to start a war.  He also awarded the title of “hero” to an artillery unit that killed four South Koreans in an attack in 2012.  The award citation praised the unit for hitting the targets “to mercilessly smash provocations of the enemy for aggression”.

The concern in South Korea is that the young and inexperienced Kim Jong-un might be considering another such attack in order to help him secure full control over the military.  And this has prompted South Korea to issue a firm warning to the North.  On 21 August, a “senior military official” was quoted by the South Korean news agency Yonhap as saying that in the event of such an attack: “The military will immediately strike the sources of the attack, its supporting and commanding forces as well as corresponding targets.”  He added: “It is an expression of our intention to devastate the source of the attacks and its surroundings if the North provokes again, in a bid to prevent it from launching an additional attack.”

In the November 2010 incident, the North accused South Korean troops of firing towards the North during a live-fire exercise, which the South denied.  In a ‘retaliatory’ artillery attack on Yeonpyeong, the North killed four South Koreans and injured 19.  Since then, South Korea has strengthened its rules of engagement which now call for an immediate strike against “the sources of attack as well as its supporting forces”.

In our 25 July issue we reported that the latest intelligence from Pyongyang was suggesting that Kim was preparing agricultural and economic reforms, including reducing the role of the military in the country’s economy.  The big question this week is whether the step-up in belligerent rhetoric indicates that hopes of reform will - once again - prove to have been misplaced.  So far it has never paid to be optimistic on North Korea, however it is still possible to reconcile Kim’s belligerent rhetoric and pro-military gestures with an underlying reformist agenda.  Whatever his intentions, Kim has to shore up his relationship with the military.  It may not pay to be optimistic on North Korea, but, at the very least, we’re prepared to say that we would be surprised if this week’s belligerent rhetoric were to be converted into action.