Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Saudi Arabia and Bahrain in Iran’s sights as well as Israel.  On al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day in Tehran, it was not just Israel that was the target of aggressive sloganeering.  According to the Fars news agency, “a group of youths participating in Quds Day rallies was carrying a Bahraini flag and chanting slogans against the Al-Khalifa dynasty in Bahrain.”  The same group chanted anti-Saudi Arabia slogans.  Iran supports the Shia opposition in Bahrain against the minority-Sunni ruling family, and it supports the Shia minority in Saudi Arabia.

A spokesman for the group was quoted as saying: “Americans want to divert the Islamic Awakening and save the Al-Khalifa dynasty in Bahrain by creating conflicts and unrest in Syria.  But the Iranian people as defenders and supporters of the resistance will not let the dictatorship system divert the Islamic Awakening movement...”

*** A warning on China’s rural wealth gap.  On 21 August the official Chinese news agency Xinhua quoted a report warning about inequalities of wealth in rural areas.  The report from the Central China Normal University’s Centre for China Rural Studies said the Gini coefficient in rural areas last year was 0.3949.  The index has a range of 0 to 1, and 0.4 is considered to be the level at which social disturbances could happen.  If urban areas are included, China’s Gini coefficient is well above 0.4.  The government hasn’t released this figure since 2000, but in that year it was 0.412.

*** India’s Kashmir government intimidated by China.  According to sources in India’s Jammu and Kashmir state, the state government has suspended work on an irrigation project in the Leh district of Ladakh following warnings from the Chinese army.  An official from Leh says the project has only been temporarily suspended, but it is reportedly the third time in three years that a major development project in Leh has been stopped under Chinese pressure.  In 2010, the state government suspended construction of passenger shelters near the border at Demchok, and a road project was stopped following Chinese objections.

*** Drought affects North Korean harvest.  As a result of the drought in the spring, it is thought that North Korea’s annual harvest may be down by 700,000 tons.  The summer harvest of wheat, barley, and spring potatoes was down by 200,000, according to Seoul’s Korea Rural Economic Institute.  The autumn harvest of corn, rice, and beans could be down by another 400,000, with non-grain produce dropping another 100,000 tons.

According to a researcher at the institute, as a result of the poor harvest, the total food shortfall could reach 1m tons this year.  The North has secured 600,000 tons of grain through imports and aid, but it still needs to find 400,000 tons to feed the population.